Hail and Damaging Winds in Indiana, November 6, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1220 PM EST SAT NOV 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS REMAINS ON POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT TONIGHT.

ALL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON HANDLING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM
THROUGH SUNDAY. NO SIG ERRORS NOTED AND WILL USE A BLEND BEYOND 12
HRS FOR TEMPS.

MAJOR STORM SYSTEM NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. MAIN UPPER
WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS IS INDUCING
PRESSURE FALLS WITH SFC LOW NOW LOCATED ACROSS SE KS. PRESSURE RISES
ACROSS KS SHOULD FORCE THIS LOW NE INTO CENTRAL MO BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING/DIVERGENCE ALREADY INCREASING
ACROSS THE REGION. ELEVATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN REGION OF
DEEP ASCENT ACROSS IL BUT DESPITE STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR THEY HAVE
BEEN UNABLE TO REMAIN ORGANIZED.

EXPECT MAIN EVENT TO OCCUR AFTER DARK AS MID-UPPER JET STREAK
DEVELOPS ON FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS
WHICH INCLUDES 50-60KTS AT 850MB AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
DEEP LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40KTS POINTS TOWARD THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL. BEST GUESS
ON TIMING IS 9 PM TO 4 AM...HOWEVER ONCE A LINE FORMS EXPECT THE
FORWARD SPEED 45 TO 55 KTS TO MAKE ANY MODEL FCST MUCH TOO SLOW.
THAT SAID, EXPECT LINE OF MOVE OUT OF THE CWA BY 12Z WITH WINDY
CONDS THEREAFTER AS INTENSE ISALLOBARIC/PRESSURE RISES HIT THE AREA
THROUGH MID MORNING.

ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA BY
TUES-WEDS. EXPECT GULF MOISTURE THAT IS BROUGHT NORTHWARD
TODAY/TONIGHT WILL RETURN MORE QUICKLY WITH SECOND SYSTEM SO PRECIP
CHCS BY TUES LOOKS GOOD. FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION FOR MID-LATE WEEK
BUT PERHAPS NOT AS COLD/AMPLIFIED OF A SOLUTION. IN A NUTSHELL, ONE
MAJOR WEATHER EVENT TONIGHT AND ANOTHER SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

CO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 PM EST SAT NOV 5 2005

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-061030-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
320 PM EST SAT NOV 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
DAMAGING WINDS
LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED TORNADOES

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:
ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION:

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING,
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ILLINOIS AFTER 9 PM. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST AT 50 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LINE
WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...THE INTENSITY OF THE WINDS BOTH NEAR THE SURFACE AND THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERE DOES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

AGAIN...THIS IS A VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS TO CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT. WE URGE
RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TO STAY ABREAST OF THE CHANGING WEATHER
SITUATION THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER NOON ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT...THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE)

JOHNSON/CO