Hail in Missouri, May 11, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1102 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR THE CONVECTION THAT HAS
LINGERED ABOUT NORTHERN MISSOURI AND POPPED UP OVER EASTERN KANSAS.
SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUSHED AS FAR
SOUTH AS A LINE FROM LEAVENWORTH TO CARROLLTON AND MOBERLY. THOUGHTS
ARE THAT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO REFOCUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS THAT THE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI SHOULD
COME TO AN END. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE AS A VORT MAX...CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS...MOVES INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. 12Z TOPEKA
SOUNDING HAD A NICE CAP ON IT...BUT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND VORT
MAX MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND CAP EROSION TO
ALLOW A CHANCE OF STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEREFORE...I HAVE BROUGHT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MISSOURI RIVER. POINTS SOUTH OF THE RIVER SHOULD STAY STORM FREE
UNTIL MAYBE THIS NIGHT WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE
VICINITY.

CUTTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

710 AM...
FIRST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS APPEARS TO BE WASHING OUT NEAR THE MO
RIVER. A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURGED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST KS
AND INTO THE STJ AREA WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION FORMING ALONG IT.
WILL NEED TO ADJUST THUNDER CHANCES A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. HAVE SOME NEW CONCERNS THAT THIS SECOND BOUNDARY WILL
REINFORCE THE COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN MO SO HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURES BY A CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF CWA. ALSO
NOTICED THE STRATOCU WHICH HAS FOLLOWED THE COOLER AIR SOUTH. 06Z
NAM SHOVED THE SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHERN MO BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND CARRIED CONVECTION SOUTHWARD AS WELL. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR THEN FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE SCRUBBED WITH TEMPERATURES
LOWERED DRASTICALLY.

MJ

350 AM...
MAIN UPPER FEATURES OF LARGE CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION HANDLED FAIRLY WELL BY ETA/NAM/CANADIAN MODELS.
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MERGE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MORE POSITIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWER
FRONTAL MOVEMENT ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MAIN MODEL PROBLEMS ARE THE
NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES NOTED IN THE GFS.

IN THE SHORT TERM PRIMARY PROBLEM IS HOW FAR SOUTH WILL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY GENERATED BY LARGE MCS OVER IA GET. WEST SIDE OF COLD POOL
HAS SLOWED ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION WITH MAIN PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN
IA. VEERING 850MB WINDS HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUED ELEVATED
CONVECTION NORTH OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THINK NAM TOO FAR SOUTH
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BY 18Z TODAY. THINK BETTER BET IS FOR OUTFLOW
TO REACH A LINE FROM BETWEEN STJ AND MCI TO AROUND MOBERLY THIS
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A
NARROW BAND OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTHERN MO FOR THIS MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY SOUTH OF WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAYS. ALONG AND NORTH OF PRIMARY WARM FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A CHALLENGE. AIRMASS SOUTH OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MINIMAL CAP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
WATCH REMNANTS OF TX/OK PANHANDLE CONVECTION AS MVC ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE COULD AID WITH RENEWED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WEST-EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THROUGH THURSDAY BEST BET FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MO
AND EAST CENTRAL KS WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES. THURSDAY SHOULD
SEE MORE CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WEST
CENTRAL MO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD DUE TO THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH.

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL MO
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD RESULT IN REPEAT STORMINESS AND THUS
HEAVY RAINFALL. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY COULD ALSO SEE SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CWA AS UPPER FLOW WILL BE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND THUS CELLS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EASTWARD MOVEMENT.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-121115-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-
SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-
CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-
JOHNSON-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
600 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH MID MORNING.
NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...MAINLY NORTH OF A ST JOSEPH
TO MACON LINE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING FROM LARGE HAIL AT LEAST THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE SAME WEATHER SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAYS WEATHER WILL
LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOW MOVING. INITIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EXTREME EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
AND INDIVIDUAL STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND A REPEAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINS IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORM SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND ON FRIDAY SPOTTERS MAY
BE NEEDED OVER MOST OF THE REGION.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1001 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     HAIL             2 E JAMESPORT           39.97N 93.76W
05/11/2005  1.00 INCH        GRUNDY             MO   PUBLIC

&&

MJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1014 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 AM     HAIL             2 E FARMERSVILLE        39.96N 93.50W
05/11/2005  0.88 INCH        LIVINGSTON         MO   PUBLIC

&&

MJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1020 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 AM     HAIL             1 N CHULA               39.94N 93.48W
05/11/2005  1.00 INCH        LIVINGSTON         MO   PUBLIC

&&

MJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1027 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

MOZ016-024-111630-
LINN-SULLIVAN-
1027 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN LINN AND SOUTHERN SULLIVAN
COUNTIES...

AT 1023 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAREDO...OR 15 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TRENTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

NRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1119 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 AM     HAIL             12 N STANBERRY          40.39N 94.54W
05/11/2005  1.00 INCH        GENTRY             MO   PUBLIC

&&

MJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

KSZ102-MOZ011-111730-
DONIPHAN-HOLT-
1130 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DONIPHAN AND SOUTHEASTERN HOLT
COUNTIES...

AT 1129 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEONA...OR 13 MILES EAST OF HIAWATHA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

NRR