Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, May 11, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
234 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE WHEN WILL
THUNDERSTORMS POP, HOW SEVERE WILL STORMS BE, AND WILL WINDS
INCREASE INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

GOING WIND ADVISORY HAS NOT BEEN MET YET, BUT THE RUC MODEL QUICKLY
INCREASES WINDS FROM 21Z-00Z.  SO FOR NOW, HAVE LEFT ADVISORY
FLYING TILL 7 PM.  MAY YANK IT AND CANCEL BEFORE 21Z ZONES ARE SENT,
BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WINDS SPEEDS.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN 2/3RDS OF CWA AS
THE DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN PANHANDLE AREAS MOVES EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS WILL LIKELY FIRE A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 23Z,
THEN BULGE OUT AND MARCH EAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.  WILL GO
WITH 50 POPS FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF CWA, WITH A MENTION OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.  THE DDC 18Z SOUNDING
SHOWED AN ELEVATED INVERSION WHICH SHOULD BE ERASED WHEN THE SURFACE
TEMPS REACH ABOUT 86F, WHICH SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND 22Z. THERE
WILL BE PRIME CONDITIONS IN PLACE AS THE DRY LINE COMES EAST, THE
OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO THE NORTH SURGES SOUTH, AND THE COLD FRONT
NEAR I-70 SLOWLY MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST.  AT THIS POINT, EXPECT SPC TO
COME OUT WITH AT LEAST A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH, BUT QUESTION
WILL BE WHEN.  IT MAY NOT BE BY ZONE ISSUANCE TIME, BUT WILL TRY TO
COVER POSSIBLE ISSUANCE BY HAVING SEVERE WORDING IN ZONES.  FROM MY
ASSESSMENT, LARGE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 65MPH ARE THE MAIN RISKS,
AND NEAR HYS/WAKEENEY POSSIBLY ENOUGH SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO.

AS FAR AS THURSDAY GOES, HAD TO DROP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT, AS
CLOUDS AND NE-SW COLD FRONT STRADDLING CWA WILL INHIBIT SOLAR
HEATING.  ANY PRECIP WILL ALSO SLOW DOWN HEATING AND THUS THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE COLD AIR TO SINK SOUTHWARD.  WILL KEEP 20
WEST TO 40 EAST POPS GOING, AS THERE WILL BE UPPER DISTURBANCES
CROSSING TO THE EAST OVER THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES.  AS FOR THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS, WILL USE THE RUC40 FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST,
AND A COMBO OF THE ETA80/GFS80 FOR THE 12-60HR FORECAST.

DAYS 3-7...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH
A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT MOVING EASTWARD
AND BRINGING NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS, WE SHOULD DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER THAT.  THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT ECMWF BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY.  A LEE TROUGH WILL
START TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTH, BUT THINK THAT IT
WILL JUST BE RECIRCULATING CANADIAN AIR AT THIS POINT, SO AM NOT
HUGELY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES.  WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY, BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION.  BY MONDAY AND
INTO MID-WEEK, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS, THEN
FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWESTERLY.  THE SHORTWAVE THAT THE GFS HAD COMING
OUT TUESDAY LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IT DID YESTERDAY.  YET WITH
ALL THE UNCERTAINTY AND POP CLIMO BEING AROUND 20 PERCENT ANYWAY,
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AS IT IS FOR NOW.  WITH 850MB TEMPS OF MID
20S MOVING INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, TEMPS COULD AGAIN
GET PRETTY TOASTY.  MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING TEMPS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  79  53  66 /  50  40  30  30
GCK  55  77  47  65 /  50  30  20  20
EHA  51  79  46  65 /  50  20  20  20
LBL  56  78  49  66 /  50  40  30  30
HYS  63  76  52  65 /  50  30  20  30
P28  67  79  59  69 /  40  50  60  30
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
      KSZ030...KSZ031...KSZ043...KSZ044...KSZ045...KSZ046...
      KSZ061...KSZ062...KSZ063...KSZ064...KSZ065...KSZ066...
      KSZ074...KSZ075...KSZ076...KSZ077...KSZ078...KSZ079...
      KSZ080...KSZ081...KSZ084...KSZ085...KSZ086...KSZ087...
      KSZ088...KSZ089...KSZ090.
&&

12/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
425 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-121000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
425 AM CDT (325 AM MDT) WED MAY 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS ALONG
A DRYLINE IN EASTERN COLORADO AND ALSO NEAR I-70 NEAR A WARM FRONT
THAT WILL BE IN THE AREA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL, WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH,
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND SOME TORNADOES.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES
LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LACROSSE TO SCOTT CITY LINE...BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS
WELL. THESE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS. RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER DAY.

THERE IS ALSO A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREATS...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE STATIONARY FRONT. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE EAST
OF A HAYS TO DODGE CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

28

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

KSZ030-031-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088-120300-
CLARK-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-
LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-SCOTT-SEWARD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
322 PM CDT (222 PM MDT) WED MAY 11 2005

...TORNADO WATCH #249 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT (9 PM MDT)...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 249 FOR
A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE
INCLUDED IN THE WATCH.

CLARK...ELLIS...FINNEY...FORD...GRANT...GRAY...HAMILTON...
HASKELL...HODGEMAN...KEARNY...LANE...MEADE...MORTON...
NESS...SCOTT...SEWARD...STANTON...STEVENS... AND
TREGO.

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

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