Damaging Wind in Missouri, June 11, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
608 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HOW THIS SYSTEM
EVOLVES AND THE RESULT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  A PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY EJECTED NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOUCHING OFF THE
STORMS EARLIER IN THE EVENING.  LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
HAS FORMED INTO BOWING SEGMENT. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE IS
BEGINNING TO FLOP OVER AND BECOME MORE EAST/WEST POSITIONED WHILE
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LINE IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD.  WILL
PROBABLY GO LIKELY POPS GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A JOPLIN TO OSAGE
BEACH LINE THIS MORNING...NOT TOO CONFIDENT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LINE WILL GET MUCH PAST JOPLIN. LOOKING FURTHER WEST...CONVECTION
HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. UNSURE HOW LONG THE SYSTEM
WILL HOLD TOGETHER. HOWEVER...THERE COULD POSSIBLY BE A REMNANT
CIRCULATION LEFT OVER WHICH PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY.  ONCE AGAIN IF CLOUDS CLEAR ENOUGH FROM THE MORNING CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION...THEN MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HAS OCCURRED THE PREVIOUS COUPLE
OF DAYS.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRESENT...AND
MLCAPES SHOULD BE AROUND 2000 J/KG IF TEMPERATURES CAN WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S. WITH HIGH PWS AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING POPS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GOING WITH THE GFS FORECAST FOR ARLENES
TRACK...THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE HIGH POPS ON SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI AS FORECAST BY THE NAM.  LOOKS LIKE THE
FORECAST AREA WILL STAY IN A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WONT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (30 TO 40
POP COVERAGE IN GRIDS) DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  IN ADDITION...CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER THE PLAINS AND MAY POSSIBLY
AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS ON TAP ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AND
STABLE AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

SAW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...LOOKING AT LAST FEW HOURS OF REGIONAL RADAR...IT
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA IS HOLDING
TOGETHER AND WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH BOTH TAF SITES LATER THIS
MORNING. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR TAF UPDATES THROUGH THE MORNING.

BROWNING

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-111100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
600 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING:
    FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
    HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS.
    WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
    AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A BRANSON
  TO HOUSTON LINE THIS MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
  ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

  THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING MAY CONTAIN WIND
  GUSTS TO 40 MPH. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

  IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CLOUDS AND
  PRECIPITATION...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
  DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  DAMAGING WINDS AND NICKEL
  SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL
  AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

  ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
  AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKS EASTWARD
  INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI TOWARD DAWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
  DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
  NIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE OZARKS
  REGION. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG TO
  POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN
  ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
917 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

KSZ073-MOZ066-111445-
BOURBON-VERNON-
917 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BOURBON AND VERNON COUNTIES UNTIL
945 AM CDT...

AT 912 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR REDFIELD...OR 8 MILES WEST OF FORT SCOTT...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR FULTON BY 930 AM CDT.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

GAEDE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1019 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

MOZ088-093-111545-
JASPER-NEWTON-
1019 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL
1045 AM CDT...

AT 1016 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SAGINAW...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
NEOSHO...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR DIAMOND BY 1025 AM CDT.
  6 MILES NORTH OF GRANBY BY 1030 AM CDT.
  NEAR SARCOXIE BY 1045 AM CDT.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH IN ADDITION TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

GAEDE