Damaging Wind in Missouri, June 10, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
224 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MCV CURRENTLY PUSHING OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION WAS QUICK TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 1230
AND 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS MCV HAS INTERACTED WITH MOIST UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.  MIXED LAYER CAPES WERE
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. STORMS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND WOULD EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  IN
ADDITION...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE SAME AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAINLY
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.

CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT WEST IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT AND
POSSIBLY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN CWA TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA AS
THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN.

UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ONSHORE ON SATURDAY...AND INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY.  WILL CONTINUE TO LIKELY SEE
REDEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.

EXTENDED PERIOD...

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT OF LARGE UPPER CIRCULATION FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.  SHOULD STILL SEE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS NORTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS AND SHOULD PUSH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.  HAVE KEPT IN A DRY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WILL LIKELY SEE BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILINGS WITH
CUMULUS FIELD EXPANDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FROM 19Z THROUGH 00Z AT THE JLN/SGF FORECAST
POINTS AND WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS OF 3000 TO 4000 FEET.
VISIBILITIES IN THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 MILES.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

LINDENBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-111100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING:
    FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
    HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
    WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
    AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.

  DISCUSSION:

  AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING
  AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
  ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  SOME
  OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...
  WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
  POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS
  A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN KANSAS TRACKS EASTWARD INTO
  THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
  DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
  INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AT THIS TIME
  EXPECTED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY
  EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
157 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

MOZ069-101945-
CAMDEN-
157 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CAMDEN COUNTY UNTIL 245
PM CDT...

AT 156 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF LAURIE...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CAMDENTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

IZZI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
233 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

MOZ079-102030-
POLK-
233 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POLK COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 230 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF
HUMANSVILLE TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAIR PLAY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

IZZI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
304 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             CAMDENTON               38.00N 92.75W
06/10/2005  0.75 INCH        CAMDEN             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PENNY SIZE HAIL AND A 40 MPH THUNDERSTORM GUST.

0302 PM     HAIL             6 SE STOCKTON           37.64N 93.72W
06/10/2005  0.75 INCH        CEDAR              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

BOOKBINDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
322 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE ARNICA             37.77N 93.69W
06/10/2005                   CEDAR              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTRY ROAD 2191 JUST NORTH OF HIGHWAY AA CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING

BOOKBINDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...ADDITIONAL REPORTS FROM JUNE 9TH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
331 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEWBURG                 37.92N 91.90W
06/09/2005                   PHELPS             MO   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWERLINES DOWN IN AND NORTH OF NEWBURG.

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N SALEM               37.72N 91.55W
06/09/2005                   DENT               MO   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWERLINES DOWN.

0738 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRINKTOWN               38.13N 92.08W
06/09/2005                   MARIES             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

1045 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DIXON                   38.00N 92.10W
06/09/2005                   PULASKI            MO   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWERLINES DOWN.

BOOKBINDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
359 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BUFFALO                 37.65N 93.10W
06/10/2005                   DALLAS             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

BOOKBINDER