Hail in Missouri, April 20, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
342 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

LAST NIGHTS NOCTURNAL MCS ACTUALLY HELD ITS OWN THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...AND HAS SINCE BEGAN TO REGENERATE A BIT OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THIS MCS SHOULD EXIT FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
BY AROUND 00Z WITH A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL JET COULD ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SHOULD THIS SYSTEM
MATERIALIZE ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IT COULD BEGIN TO TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR CWA BEFORE SUNRISE AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AS IS THE CASE MORE OFTEN THAN NOT...QUESTIONS LINGER REGARDING
CONVECTIVE TIMING AND MODE FOR TOMORROW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LEFT
OVER CONVECTION FROM TONIGHT COULD BE MEANDERING ACROSS OUR CWA
TOMORROW MORNING AND MAYBE EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTION OR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS COULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AT LEAST
INITIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THAT MORNING CONVECTION DOESNT HAMPER DESTABILIZATION OR
ASSUMING THERE IS NO MORNING CONVECTION...THEN STEEP LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL OVERSPREAD THE WARM
SECTOR WITH MLCAPES POTENTIALLY REACHING 3000 J/KG BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUN ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND A BIT
FASTER WITH THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS SPEED
MAX WILL HELP ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES AND GIVEN THE STRONG
INSTABILITY POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
CONVECTION. OF COURSE THIS IS ALL GOING TO DEPEND ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE EVENING
TOMORROW...HOWEVER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT
TOMORROW AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORT WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
FRIDAY. COULD BE AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR TWO...MAINLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

IZZI

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

INITIALLY THE FORECAST PROBLEM OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE TO OCCUR. MODELS AND
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES...AND
GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES FELT COMFORTABLE LOWERING TEMPERATURES MORE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST HOW COLD NIGHTTIME LOWS GET WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON
POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...WHICH OBVIOUSLY IS STILL SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CURRENT TIMING IN
THE MODELS...AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS MAY ACTUALLY DODGE A BULLET THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE WEST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THIS TIMING ENDS UP PANNING
OUT PERFECTLY...THEN THE GRADIENT MAY BE TOO STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE PROBLEMS. BY SUNDAY...INCREASING WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE THREAT
EXCEPT MAYBE IN THE VALLEYS/HOLES IN OUR EASTERN CWA. AGAIN...THIS
IS ALL BASED ON CURRENT TIMING IN THE MODELS. IF OUR AREA ENDS UP
PARKED UNDER THE RIDGE EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
THE THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD FROST AND/OR FREEZE WOULD DRAMATICALLY
INCREASE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
239 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-211800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
239 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
  OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
  VERSAILLES TO SALEM MISSOURI LINE. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
  PRODUCE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
  60 MPH.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 3 AM...MAINLY NORTH
  AND WEST OF A JOPLIN TO OSAGE BEACH LINE. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
  INDEED MAKE IT INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE TONIGHT...THEN ONE OR
  TWO OF THE STORMS MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GUSTY
  WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
  THE OUTLOOK AREA. THOSE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
  SEVERE LIMITS.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
  BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS.
  HOWEVER...IF THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW CLOUDINESS FROM MORNING
  PRECIPITATION LINGERS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON THEN THE SEVERE
  WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE GREATLY DIMINISHED TOMORROW AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING.

  UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
  DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
  SYSTEM...MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST OR
  POSSIBLY EVEN A FREEZE SATURDAY AND OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

  FINALLY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY OR TUESDAY
  OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTERS OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD
  RELAY ANY REPORTS OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING TO THE
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THROUGH NORMAL REPORTING PROCEDURES. IN
  ADDITION...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

IZZI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             3 NE LAKE OZARK         38.16N 92.59W
04/20/2005  1.00 INCH        MILLER             MO   PUBLIC

JLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

MOZ058-202100-
MARIES-
300 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARIES COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 256 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TUSCUMBIA...OR 14 MILES EAST OF OSAGE
BEACH...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM AS IT MOVES INTO MARIES COUNTY.

BROWNING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
329 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             IBERIA                  38.10N 92.32W
04/20/2005  0.88 INCH        MILLER             MO   PUBLIC

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
333 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             IBERIA                  38.10N 92.32W
04/20/2005  1.00 INCH        MILLER             MO   PUBLIC

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
415 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             DIXON                   38.00N 92.10W
04/20/2005  1.00 INCH        PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
424 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             1 W ROLLA               37.95N 91.79W
04/20/2005  0.25 INCH        PHELPS             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

JLT