Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, April 20, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
458 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

.MESO UPDATE...

DRYLINE NOW APPEARS TO BE RETREATING TO THE WEST VIA LATEST RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. IF THIS CONTINUES THEN OUR SMALL WATCH AREA
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED EARLY, AS STORMS WILL
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SURVIVING EAST OF THE WESTWARD RETREATING
DRYLINE. THIS DRYLINE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH A HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNSET AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS FROM LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THIS AREA.

15/JAKUB

--------------------------------------------------------------------
329 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME THAT WERE SAMPLED NICELY BY PROFILER
NETWORK. WAVE ONE WAS MOVING ACROSS W TEXAS WITH SECOND MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE MOVING EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WAVE ONE
MOVING ACROSS W TEXAS HAS CAUSED SURFACE WINDS TO BACK SOME WHICH
SHOULD INCREASE THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS. THE DRYLINE CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM PRATT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. OUR LOCAL
WORKSTATION ETA MODEL INDICATES SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH LOOKS PLAUSIBLE, AS
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE DRYLINE. ANY DRYLINE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF
REACHING SEVERE LIMITS AS INSTABILITY IS HIGHER TDY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. RUC MODEL SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE CAP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KS, SO IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP THEY WILL HAVE THE BEST SURVIVAL CHANCE
IN THAT AREA. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH A FEW HRS
AFTER SUNSET AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.

THE SECOND MORE VIGOROUS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT TO OCCUR AS LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL START OUT IN
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING, THEN QUICKLY SPREAD
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG THE 850MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN KS
OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CWA WHICH
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 850MB BOUNDARY. COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG 310K GRADIENT.

THUR-FRI
WE SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AGAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING ON THUR BUT THEY
SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST, AS WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS PUSHES DRIER AIR IN FROM WESTERN KS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHER ACROSS EASTERN KS THURSDAY WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. AS A RESULT, SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE SHIFTED EAST
ACCORDINGLY. HEADING INTO FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER NORTHEAST KS EARLY IN MORNING, BUT THEN SHOULD BE
SHUNTED SOUTHEAST AS A KICKER SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WE WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SMALL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES FOR FRIDAY
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT. FRI TEMPS WILL BE SOME
15-20 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TDYS VALUES WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS
SETTING UP OVER REGION.

SAT
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS COMING
IN COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS, AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.

EXTENDED: SUN-WED
NEXT SYSTEM SLATED TO AFFECT KS ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING OFF A
BIT THERE AFTER.

DEEP TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG 140W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL DEVELOP A CLOSED SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, WHICH
SHOULD THEN TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES COME SUNDAY. WILL KEEP
GOING POPS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES,
AND STAY WITH OUR DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUES/WED TIME FRAME AT THIS
JUNCTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  80  49  64 /  20  20  10  20
HUTCHINSON      62  78  47  62 /  30  20  10  20
NEWTON          63  79  48  62 /  30  30  10  20
ELDORADO        63  80  49  63 /  30  30  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  81  50  65 /  20  20  10  20
RUSSELL         59  75  43  59 /  30  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      59  76  44  60 /  30  20  10  20
SALINA          61  77  46  59 /  40  30  20  20
MCPHERSON       61  78  47  61 /  30  20  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     63  81  52  65 /  20  30  30  20
CHANUTE         63  80  51  63 /  30  30  30  20
IOLA            63  80  50  62 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

15/JAKUB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
402 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-211200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
402 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE, AND
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE AREAS
GREATEST AT RISK WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A HUTCHINSON, TO
ARGONIA LINE. IF STORMS CAN MOVE INTO THIS AREA, LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING,
AND COULD MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLY AFFECTING CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING, GENERALLY EAST OF
I-35.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY
EAST OF I-35.  THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE STORMS
DEVELOP INTO A LINE.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE FORECAST FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON HOW
STRONG THESE STORMS MIGHT BE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SPOTTER ACTIVATION WOULD BE NEEDED THIS
EVENING, WEST OF A LINE FROM HUTCHINSON TO ARGONIA.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

HOWERTON/JAKUB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
352 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

KSZ067-082-091-210400-
HARPER KS-KINGMAN KS-RENO KS-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 169
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

HARPER                KINGMAN               RENO

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ANTHONY...HUTCHINSON AND KINGMAN.

KETCHAM