Funnel Cloud in Mississippi, July 14, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
256 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...
NOCTURNAL CROP OF SH/TS GETTING STARTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING. 700MB TROUGH THAT HELPED TO CAUSE THE TS OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST TX WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND STALL ACROSS EAST
TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE AN AREA FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES TO
MOVE THROUGH...INITIATING COMPLEXES OF SH/TS WHICH WILL GET
PICKED UP IN THE MEAN FLOW BRINGING THEM EAST BOUND. NO CHANGE IN
THE 700 TROUGH POSITION IS ADVERTISED BY ANY MODELS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE RUN WHICH IS WHY QPF IS PAINTED OVER THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ANOTHER STRANGE TREND IS THE AMOUNT OF EARLY TROPICAL ACTIVITY
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN COMPARED TO THE PACIFIC BASIN. NO STORMS
HAVE WENT OUT INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC EITHER THIS
YEAR. LOOKING AT HEMISPHERIC SATELLITE...IT SHOWS SOME VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE MOST
EAST PAC TROPICAL CYCLONE SEEDLINGS ARE BORN. THESE STRONG WINDS
ARE LOCATED FROM SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA ENDING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF ARE MAINLY UNDER UPPER
RIDGING. SIMPLY HAVENT SEEN TOO MANY TROPICAL SEASONS WITH THESE
CONDITIONS OR WHERE THE ATLANTIC IS BEATING OUT THE EAST PAC.

EMILY STILL ON ITS WESTERLY COURSE AND GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT IN HAVING HER TRACK WNW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN BEFORE FALLING ONTO THE YUCATAN PEN EARLY ON THE 18TH.
WILL NOT SPECULATE ON WHERE SHE WILL GO AFTERWARDS BUT WILL SIMPLY
HAVE TO SEE IF THE TEXAS TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG AS THE
GLOBAL SUITE ARE ADVERTISING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  73  88  73 /  60  30  60  30
BTR  89  75  89  76 /  60  30  60  30
MSY  90  78  90  78 /  60  30  50  30
GPT  89  75  87  76 /  60  30  50  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
SE LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
615 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2005

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-141600-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-
ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
615 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW COULD BE
LOCALLY STRONG...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LOCALLY
STRONG...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

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