Hurricane in Mississippi, August 27 to 29, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
355 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...POWERFUL HURRICANE KATRINA
WILL DICTATE THE WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND A
HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR COASTAL ALABAMA.  KATRINA HAS
CONTINUED TENACIOUSLY ON A WESTWARD MOVEMENT BUT APPEARS TO HAVE
CHANGED TO A WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT IN THE LAST FEW SATELLITE
FRAMES ALONG WITH HUGE BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
STORM.  A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE STUBBORN
RIDGING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WEAKENS DUE TO A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
SYSTEM ADVANCING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS AND A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES.  HAVE GONE WITH LOW
POPS TONIGHT...BUT OUTER BANDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...WITH COVERAGE PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY AS
KATRINA MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.  WENT WITH HPC QPF
GRIDS FOR KATRINA AS COORDINATED WITH ADJACENT OFFICES.  WILL LET
THE NEXT SHIFT ASSESS THE NEED FOR AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND
WATCH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. /29

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA
EXCEPT FOR SMALL POPS DURING DAYTIME PERIODS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS. /29

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD THROUGH MONDAY AS
HURRICANE KATRINA APPROACHES THE LA/MS COASTLINE. ALTHOUGH THE EYE
OF HURRICANE KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE NEAR THE MOUTH OF
THE MS RIVER TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF
THE MARINE AREA BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS EXPECT WIND
GUSTS UP TO 55 KTS OVER THE AL WATERS AND 45 KTS OVER THE FL WATERS
BY EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUE THROUGH WED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES
INLAND.  /32

&&

.FIRE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE KATRINA ON SUNDAY AND
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE STORM MOVES
ONSHORE. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND
SUBSIDE AS KATRINA MOVES AWAY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.  DISPERSIONS WILL BE VERY HIGH DUE TO THE WIND
FIELD GENERATED BY KATRINA. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  89  77  87 /  20  70  80  90
PENSACOLA   78  88  78  87 /  30  70  80  80
DESTIN      78  88  78  86 /  30  70  80  80
EVERGREEN   73  91  75  87 /  10  60  70  80
WAYNESBORO  72  92  76  85 /  10  50  70  90
CAMDEN      73  93  75  87 /  10  50  70  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HURRICANE WATCH ALZ063-064-GMZ630-650-670.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALZ063-064.
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ655-675.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FLZ002-004-006.
MS...NONE.

&&

29/32
EVERSOLE/ESBENSEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
555 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-281100-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
555 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.  NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

SWELLS MOVING NORTHWEST FROM HURRICANE KATRINA WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
SURF ALONG THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS IN THE SURF AS WELL THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

...MAJOR HURRICANE KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST ON MONDAY...

THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CALLS FOR
HURRICANE KATRINA TO MOVE WEST THEN NORTHWEST OUT OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN TO MOVE MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  KATRINA...A MAJOR HURRICANE...
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
MONDAY.  MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THE FORECAST TRACK OF
KATRINA.  THE EVENTUAL LANDFALL COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA TO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...THE COASTAL AREAS OF ALABAMA
AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE CONCERNING HURRICANE KATRINA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS IS CURRENTLY IN
PROGRESS FOR HURRICANE OPERATIONS.