Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 27, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
236 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2005

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THIS FORECAST IS WHAT TO DO WITH
POPS. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES A
SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN COLORADO. THE SURFACE
ANALYSIS AT 20Z INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. 20Z
VISIBLE SHOWING BEST CLOUD TOPS SOUTH OF DEN WITH WEAK BUILDUPS
NORTH OF THERE. THE GFS QPF/OMEGA FIELDS GIVE AN IDEA THAT THE BEST
POPS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND LESSER POPS NORTH OF
THERE. LATEST METARS INDICATE VERY DRY DEWPOINTS WEST OF ITR/YMA
WITH ONLY MINOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.  THE ETA SHOWS THE 850 BOUNDARY
IN NEBRASKA TO BE RATHER WEAK. ALSO THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE. CONSEQUENTLY HAVE DECIDED TO LIMIT LIKELY POPS TO SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 AND CONTINUE CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THERE FOR
TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS SUNDAY MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILING UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE 850 BOUNDARY IN NEBRASKA
SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD TAKE CARE OF
THAT CONTINGENCY. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING SO WILL
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE WAS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

DAYS 4-7...A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL FLATTEN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM RIDGE EARLY WEDNESDAY. DYNAMICS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THEN FINALLY EXIT EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEATHER/POP
GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REELECT THIS EARLIER TIMING. SLIGHT
CHANCE STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW BUT WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED UP. THE RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKES OVER THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON
FRIDAY SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN EASTERN COLORADO ZONES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
EVENING. SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTING DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
SATURDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE MIN
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

FS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1050 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2005

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281245-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1150 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005 /1050 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SUNSHINE TO ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO BECOME
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 2 PM MDT (3 PM
CDT). THESE STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
A FLAGLER TO GOODLAND TO HILL CITY LINE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BECAUSE OF THE FRONT...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...AND A FAVORABLE
TURNING OF WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ALONG AND SOUTH A LINE
FROM FLAGLER TO GOODLAND TO MCCOOK. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK TO HOXIE TO SHARON SPRINGS. AFTER
THOSE STORMS END...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THIS SAME AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME...THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

AFTER A DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT) ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A FLAGLER TO GOODLAND TO MCCOOK LINE.

BULLER/LAMMERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
418 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2005

KSZ004-015>016-028>029-033-042-NEZ081-280400-
DECATUR-GOVE-GRAHAM-LOGAN-NORTON-SHERIDAN-WICHITA-RED WILLOW-
418 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
749 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA...

IN KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

IN NORTHWEST KANSAS

DECATUR...GOVE...GRAHAM...
LOGAN...NORTON...SHERIDAN...
WICHITA...

IN NEBRASKA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY

IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA

RED WILLOW

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...HILL CITY...HOXIE...LEOTI...
MCCOOK...NORTON...OAKLEY...OBERLIN AND QUINTER.