Flooding in Maine, December 2, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
545 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2005

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST ACROSS MAINE TO
QUEBEC PROVINCE TODAY. RAIN WILL TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS...WITH
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS DOWNEAST
MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS MAINE TO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TODAY...WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION...CAPTURING THE SURFACE LOW. STEADY RAINS WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING WHILE THE BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE. COLD AIR BEING DRAWN AROUND THE EXITING
LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS TODAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY TODAY...THEN FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

LINGERING MOISTURE...CYCLONIC FLOW AND A TROF WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...WITH EVENING
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 TO THE LOWER 20S NORTH...WITH MID 20S DOWNEAST.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTH/MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
STACKED LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL KEEP MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. WHILE THIS UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT IMPROVEMENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AND NEW GFS RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON LOW
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OTHER MODELS. SNOW
STILL A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM EVEN WITH ALL THE
UNCERTAINTY BUT IT COULD BE RESTRICTED ACROSS DOWNEAST SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COMBINATION OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE TODAY
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS/SEAS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN/FOG EARLY TODAY...WITH
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD
END EARLY TONIGHT.

LONG TERM: SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE BY MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH 2 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ACROSS MUCH OF WASHINGTON
AND HANCOCK COUNTIES...WITH 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS ACROSS NORTHERN
PENOBSCOT COUNTY AND EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. RUNOFF FROM THESE
RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE RISES ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS TODAY.
LESSER RAINS HAVE FALLEN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
BASED ON TWO ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN IN JUST OVER 24 HOURS...HAVE
ISSUED AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR WASHINGTON/HANCOCK COUNTIES MAINLY
FOR SMALLER RIVERS/STREAMS. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE EAST BRANCH OF THE PENOBSCOT RIVER AT GRINDSTONE. RAINFALL
ACROSS THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER WATERSHED WAS GENERALLY LESS THAN A
HALF INCH OVERNIGHT. THUS...FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED AT
DOVER-FOXCROFT AND THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE PISCATAQUIS
RIVER AT DOVER- FOXCROFT WILL BE CANCELLED.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032 UNTIL 6 PM
     TODAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ050 UNTIL 5 PM SATURDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...NORCROSS
LONG TERM/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...FOSTER/NORCROSS
HYDROLOGY...NORCROSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
649 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2005

ANZ050-MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-031200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
649 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH
OF WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES. THIS RAIN...IN ADDITION TO
YESTERDAYS HEAVY RAINS...HAVE CAUSED SHARP RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS ACROSS WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH THE
HEAVIER RAINS WILL END THIS MORNING...RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTRIBUTE TO RISING WATER LEVELS. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR BOTH WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE
PRODUCT ( PWMFLWCAR ) FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION RELATING TO THE
FLOOD WARNING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE PRODUCT ( PWMFFACAR ) FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION RELATING TO THE FLOOD WATCH.

LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE TRACK OF A STORM WHICH
COULD BRING SNOW TO MAINLY DOWNEAST AREAS TUESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE STORM WILL DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS AND THE LOCATION OF ANY SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

RAINFALL TOTALS AND ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

NORCROSS