Heavy Snow in Maine, December 16 to 17, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
218 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS EASTERN MAINE
TONIGHT BRINGING SNOW TO EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION DOWNEAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH
THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BRING FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...LOW CENTER ROTATING
NORTH AROUND LARGE GREAT LAKES VORTEX WILL BRING SNOW CHANGING TO
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DOWNEAST AND MAINLY SNOW TO NORTHERN
AREAS THIS EVENING. INITIAL BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
QUICKLY PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH THE STATE EARLY THIS EVENING
BRINGING A QUICK SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO
SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN DOWNEAST...AND PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...EARLY THIS EVENING. ROAD SURFACES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ICY AND HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY ALONG SECONDARY ROADS
TONIGHT. THE INITIAL BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW WILL PROGRESS
NORTH OF THE STATE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH
LIGHT SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTHERN AREAS LATE. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MORE INTERMITTENT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY FALL
OVER NORTHERN AREAS AS A FUNCTION OF THIS SECONDARY BUNDLE OF
ENERGY...WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES LIKELY IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS
WHERE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM...CLOSE TO
TEN INCHES. BEYOND TONIGHT THE LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE MARITIMES.
SMALL SHORTWAVES FOLLOWING IN THE WESTERLIES BRING CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LONG TERM PTRN STILL APPEARS DOMINATED BY BRISK AND CHILLY WNW
FLOW OF COLD CANADIAN AIR... THIS PTRN WILL FAVOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS AND BLO NORMAL PRECIP. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT TO SAY
PRECIP WILL BE NONEXISTENT...  BEST PRECIP CHCS WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BECOME MOST LIKELY DURING THE
PASSAGE OF EMBEDDED UPPER SHORT WAVES WHICH TYPICALLY FREQUENT A
PTRN SUCH AS THIS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BEST CHCS WILL
BE ON TUE WHEN A RATHER SHARP UPPER SHORT WAVE SHOULD SLIDE SE
ACROSS THE AREA W/ AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER IS XPCTD TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM.  UNFORTUNATELY...THESE ARE
THE STRONGEST DISTURBANCES INDICATED AND THE PTRN IS DOMINATED BY
FREQUENT...THO WEAKER SHORT WAVES WHICH SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME
DIURNALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY...SPCLY
ACROSS THE FAVORED N AND WRN MTNS...&&

.AVIATION...
NRN SITES XPCTD TO DETERIORATE IN SNOW BY MID TO LATE AFTN WHILE
KBGR ALREADY AT IFR W/ IFR CONDS TO PERSIST THRU THE AFTN THEN
BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER THIS EVE...

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO GALE AHEAD OF THE LOW
CENTER EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE AS LOW CENTER
MOVES OVER THE WATERS LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND THE LOW TONIGHT AND REMAIN GENERALLY WESTERLY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MEZ001-003 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
  ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR MEZ002-004 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MEZ005-006-010 UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MEZ011-015-016-031-032 UNTIL
     MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MEZ017-029-030 UNTIL 9 PM FRIDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MEZ029-030 FROM 3 PM FRIDAY UNTIL 1000 PM
     FRIDAY
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ050 UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY. &&

MCB/KHW

SHORT TERM/MARINE...BLOOMER
LONG TERM/MARINE...KHW
AVIATION...WEITLICH

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