Hail in Louisiana, May 24, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
930 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BACK DOOR FRONT IS JUST AT THE
EDGE OF OUR NORTHERN CWA BOUNDARY... FROM JUST NORTH OF A ELD...DEQ
AR LINE.  OUR 00Z SOUNDING ALONG WITH LAPS DATA SHOWS THE AREA IS
STILL FAIRLY UNSTABLE ALTHOUGH WE HAVE LOST DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE STILL RATHER WARM.
LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW STORMS TRENDING TO BACK BUILD
WESTWARD...AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS THE FRONT SNAILS
FURTHER INTO THE AREA.  ALSO MODEL DATA SHOWS A STRONG VORT MAX
MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT...SO A
FEW STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE IN LOUISIANA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SVR WILL BE
ALLOWED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA...BUT AS FAR AS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA GOES SEVERE WORDING
WILL COVER FOR NOW...AS STORMS ARE TRACKING JUST OUTSIDE THE WATCH
BOX.  ALL THIS IS COVERED BY THE CURRENT ZONE SET...BUT WILL HAVE TO
UPDATE AROUND MIDNIGHT AS CURRENT WATCH EXPIRES.

ELEVEN

&&

.PREVIOUS POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  88  66  87 /  30  30  20  20
MLU  68  85  63  86 /  40  40  10  20
DEQ  64  83  60  83 /  40  30  20  20
TXK  69  85  64  85 /  40  30  20  20
ELD  66  85  62  85 /  40  40  10  20
TYR  70  90  67  85 /  20  30  30  30
GGG  69  90  67  86 /  20  30  30  30
LFK  68  91  68  90 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-251100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST...AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND MAINLY EXTREME NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NEAR A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS...INTO EXTREME NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AND NORTHCENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AFTERNOON HEATING HAS
ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO QUICKLY DESTABILIZE...THUS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH PART OF TONIGHT OVER THESE AREAS...
POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL
LOUISIANA TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...
IT APPEARS AS IF A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WILL
COME THIS WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THAT HAS PROVIDED
THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS...BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFF TO THE
WEST. HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA.

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