Flash Flood and Hail in Colorado, May 24 to 25, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1259 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2005........CORRECT TIME...

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF AS IMPENDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH/DEVELOPING MOIST CONVECTION HOT WEATHER ISSUE OF THE
MOMENT.

CWFA CURRENTLY NOTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH
BEST MOISTURE POOLING JUST NORTH OF CWFA.  IN ADDITION...18Z CAPES
HOVERING AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ALONG
WITH LIS IN THE -3 TO -5 RANGE AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO
35 KNOT RANGE...THEREFORE EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS/SOME SEVERE
TO ERUPT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE I-25 CORRIDOR/EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS REGION.

FOR WEDNESDAY(TOMORROW)...NORTHERLY SURGE PUSHES THROUGH CWFA BY
MORNING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS.  AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY  NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)

...COOLER TEMPS WITH LESS THUNDER ON THE WAY...

A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO BE ON THE WAY TO SE
COLORADO. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE
NEXT 24-72 HOURS. THIS...COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW FROM COLORADO/KS
MCSS WILL USHER COOLER AND CLOUDIER WEATHER INTO THE REGION. FOR
NOW...I PUT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDTIONS OVER THE PLAINS FOR MOST THE
WED-NITE-FRIDAY TIME PERIOD FOR THE PLAINS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
COOLER WX...DECIDED TO GREATLY DECREASE THE THUNDER CHANCES AND PUT
IN JUST SHOWERS. MAY ALSO SEE A SMATTERING OF NEW SNOW ON TOP OF
PIKES PEAK DURING THIS FORECAST TIME PERIOD.

FOR THE MTNS...NOT MUCH CHANGE. IT WILL REMAIN DRY AND VERY WARM.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE SLV WHERE THE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW
MAY GET INTO THE VALLEY FOR THU. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH
THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN ATTM...AND LEFT IT ON THE WARM SIDE...BUT WILL
ADVICE LATER SHIFTS OF THIS POSSIBILITY. /HODANISH

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
700 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2005

COZ058>089-093>099-251300-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7500 FT-CROWLEY COUNTY-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN 7500
AND 11000 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
700 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2005

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
BASIN IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF
VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM BLACK FOREST TO LA JUNTA TO SPRINGFIELD. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH OR TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.

HIGH FLOWS ON RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SMALLER CREEKS ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THESE AREAS.  THIS INCLUDES THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY.

IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...INCLUDING LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...AND
EVERYWHERE EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...RIVERS AND
CREEKS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN HIGH AND FAST TODAY...BUT THEY
SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWMELT FLOOD POTENTIAL MENTIONED IN THE DAY
ONE SECTION OF THIS OUTLOOK...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY BEING SEVERE.

FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE ONGOING SNOWMELT FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO...PLEASE LINK TO THE WEB SITE FOR THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO AT WEATHER.GOV/PUB.  CLICK ON THE NEWS OF
THE DAY LINKS...OR THE MAP OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
YOU CAN ALSO CLICK ON RIVERS AND LAKES FROM THE LEFT HAND MENU
...AND THEN CLICK ON TEXT PRODUCTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
LIKELY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER
1 PM TODAY.

TM/MM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
700 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2005

COZ084>086-250200-
EL PASO-PUEBLO-
700 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 323 FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA...

IN COLORADO THIS CANCELS 2 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO

EL PASO...

IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO

PUEBLO...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...COLORADO SPRINGS AND PUEBLO.

COZ088>089-093>099-250200-
BACA-BENT-CROWLEY-KIOWA-LAS ANIMAS-OTERO-PROWERS-
700 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 323 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 8 PM MDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA...

IN COLORADO THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO

BACA... BENT... CROWLEY...
KIOWA... LAS ANIMAS... OTERO...
PROWERS...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ORDWAY...OLNEY SPRINGS...EADS...
LA JUNTA...ROCKY FORD...TRINIDAD...LAMAR...SPRINGFIELD...
WALSH AND LAS ANIMAS.

METZE