Flooding in Kentucky, January 3 to 23, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
259 PM CST MON JAN 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

AT EARLY AFTERNOON A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS HUGGING THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN BOUNDARIES OF OUR FCST AREA. MODELS ARE IN BEST
AGREEMENT YET IN HANDLING OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT THERE ARE STILL
MINOR DIFFERENCES. MY OVERALL MODEL OF CHOICE WAS THE GFS...ALTHOUGH
I TONED DOWN THE POPS/QPF JUST A BIT DUE TO IT BEING OVERDONE AS A
RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SLIDE
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND COME TO REST ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE
CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS A
RESULT...DECENT FORCING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN
PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES LIFTING NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...THE BAND OF HIGHER
POPS/QPF WILL MOVE WITH IT. UP TO THIS POINT INSTABILITY INDICES ARE
MARGINAL...SO A MENTION OF THUNDER IS FOUND IN MOST PERIODS...BUT
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE. ON WEDNESDAY A STRONG SHORT WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS ENERGY WILL DEVELOP A SFC
LOW ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY WITH THE FROPA APPEARS TO BE BEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SO ONLY MENTIONED THUNDER
THERE. FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA THURSDAY
MORNING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD KKEEP THE REGION DRY AND COOLER THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS EVENT WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN DOMINATE
INTO MONDAY.

AS FAR AS FLOODING IS CONCERNED...WE FEEL THAT WE MAY HAVE A FEW
PROBLEMS OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO WEEKS WITH AREAL FLOODING...AS
OPPOSED TO SHORT TERM FLASH FLOODING. AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...AND
CREEKS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT IT
SHOULD BE MORE OF A LONG TERM EVENT...THEREFORE THERE ARE NO PLANS
TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AND SINCE WE ARE ALREADY INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY MORE HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOKS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

JAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1026 AM CST MON JAN 3 2005

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-041108-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIKESTON...POPLAR BLUFF...PERRYVILLE...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...CARMI...CARBONDALE...CAIRO...
PADUCAH...OWENSBORO...MURRAY...MAYFIELD...HOPKINSVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...MADISONVILLE AND HENDERSON
1026 AM CST MON JAN 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS...BUT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD CAUSE
A FEW LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GREEN RIVER IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ALONG THE OHIO RIVER NEAR
SHAWNEETOWN...MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.  PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE WELL BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS...BUT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND GREEN RIVERS.  PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  HOWEVER...ANY REPORTS OF
SIGNFICANT RAINFALL OR FLOODING PROBLEMS WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

DRS