Flash Flood in Arkansas, January 3, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1110 AM CST MON JAN  3 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH RAIN
OVERNIGHT...SO REMOVED SOME OF THOSE COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF WESTERN
AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL
CONTINUES OVER ABOUT THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
MID MORNING. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE. WILL BE EVALUATING
SITUATION LATER TODAY TO SEE IF CONTINUANCE OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS NEEDED FOR THE NORTH TONIGHT. ALL UPDATES OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST MON JAN 3 2005

WET WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS ACROSS THE
AREA. RATHER STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN THE GULF WITH A TROF IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD HANG JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IS UNFAVORABLE FOR
SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC AIR AND IT SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO
PENETRATE THE OZARKS. THUS WILL GO CLOSE TO PERSIUSTENCE ON TEMP
FORECASTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO A LITTLE LOWER ON TEMPS
IN THE FAR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN CASE THE FRONT DOES
MANAGE TO SLIP INTO THAT AREA BUT NOT CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL. BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHERE EXTRA CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOULD BE LESS TO THE SOUTH WHERE UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE HIGHER AND
WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE PRESENT. POPS WILL STILL RUN FROM 90
PERCENT IN THE NORTH TO 70 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF FOR TODAY. INDICATIONS
ARE THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY HANG JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT
SOME EFFECTS OF THIS MORNINGS MCS IN OKLAHOMA MAY SPILL INTO PARTS
OF WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY
BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE AS FAR AS EXTENDING THE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. THE MAIN UPPER TROF BEGINS TO COME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEAKENS. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT AND
WILL ALLOW THE ARCTIC FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. BY THAT
TIME...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MODIFIED SO THERE SHOULD NOT
BE A BIG BLAST OF COLD AIR. DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
TEMPS FORECASTS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR NOW. MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHUT OFF PRECIP FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND DID SO BEFORE IT GETS COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT WINTER
PRECIP. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SMALL AREA OF FREEZING PRECIP AT
END OF PRECIP SHIELD AS IT MOVES THROUGH BUT THAT THREAT IS NOT
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. KEPT DRY FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL IN MOST AREAS AND A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTH.

COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT INVOF THE GULF COAST/SRN LA/DEEP E TX AS
IT HITS PERSISTENT H5 RIDGE OVER SERN CONUS. SFC WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ACT TO GIVE IT A PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY. THUS...BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL END.

FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS AT 20/30 PERCENT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR RETURNING.
HOWEVER...THIS WHOLE SCENARIO LOOKS LIKELY TO REPEAT ITSELF JUST
BEYOND THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS THE SYSTEM HITS THAT
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE SE/GULF.

WITH UPPER FLOW REMAINING SWRLY TO ZONAL...AND OVER ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...DOESNT LOOK TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
COOLDOWN ANY TIME SOON.

GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO HANDLE THINGS WELL...SO NO HUGE CHANGES WERE
MADE.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 600 PM
CST MONDAY FOR ZONES ARZ003>007...ARZ012>015...ARZ021>023...
ARZ030>031...ARZ037>039..
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1105 AM CST MON JAN 3 2005

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1105 AM CST MON JAN 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST TODAY FOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS INCLUDES AREAS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM NEAR PARKS TO PERRYVILLE TO CLINTON TO CAVE CITY.

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...
BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE UP OVER THE STATE. SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND ACROSS ARKANSAS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOME AREAS OF ARKANSAS...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH AND WEST...COULD
RECEIVE AS MUCH AS ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS AND IN
LOW LYING AREAS WILL EASILY OCCUR. LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL ALSO BE
A PROBLEM...AND SHOULD BE AVOIDED. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD ALSO
CAUSE RISES ON STREAMS AND CREEKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS
ARKANSAS LATE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAINFALL GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
AND COMING TO AN END LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...LOCAL OFFICIALS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING PROBLEMS THROUGH TONIGHT. SPOTTERS
SHOULD REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL RELAY REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN LITTLE ROCK.

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