Hail in Kansas, November 12, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
350 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL DEAL WITH POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.

CURRENTLY THE SURFACE DRY LINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR LAWRENCE TO
PARSONS KANSAS.  SO FAR...NOT MUCH HAS GONE UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
EXCEPT FOR A SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD...AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
WAS OCCURRING EAST OF SPRINGFIELD IN THE ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...CONVERGENCE MAY BE
TOO WEAK ALONG THE DRYLINE...AS THE 18Z SOUNDING AT KSGF SHOWED A
CAP OVERHEAD.  LOOKING AT THE ETA MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...VALUES
INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...BUT STILL DONT LOOK IMPRESSIVE.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY REDUCING INSTABILITY OVER THESE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...CLEARING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI HAS ALLOWED MLCAPES
TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER.  IF STORMS CAN INITIATE
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THEY WOULD LIKELY BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6KM SHEAR
RANGES FROM 45-50KTS. MODE WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
HOWEVER...IF A BROKEN SEGMENT COULD FORM...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS 0-1KM SRH CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 350-500
M2/S2.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IF STORMS DEVELOP WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AS INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
STILL EXIST OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI DUE TO THE VERY
STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT.

AS FOR POPS TONIGHT...WILL TREND FROM 30S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS(AS THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THIS AREA)...TO
LIKELY POPS FROM SPRINGFIELD AND POINTS EASTWARD.  EXPECT COOLER AND
DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD.  KEPT
INHERITED POPS GOING ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST USHERING
IN INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. CONTINUED POPS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HELD ONTO SOME 15
TO 30 PERCENT POPS ON TUESDAY ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST LOCATIONS FOR
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AS THE LAST BIT OF UPPER ENERGY PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION.

NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINING EXTENDED GRIDS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW TEMPERATURE TWEAKS.  THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING
IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN -3 AND -7 DEG C ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.  WITH THIS IN MIND...AND MEX DATA
SHOWING THIS TREND AS WELL...DECIDED TO DROP TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO
THE MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. I ALSO ADJUSTED WEDNESDAY
HIGHS DOWNWARD INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY EARLY
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES REBOUND AS WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. GRIDDED HIGHS
FOR THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE MOISTURE STARVED SO
KEPT GRIDS DRY...BUT DID GO AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGHS FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

SAW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOLLOWING RADAR TRENDS WILL KEEP TEMPO TO PREDOMINANT SHOWERS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE 18Z TAFS. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TEMPO
THUNDER AFTER 21Z FOR BOTH AIRPORTS AS DRYLINE PUSHES QUICKLY
EASTWARD TO THE MO/KS BORDER. SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS
DRYLINE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. COLD FRONT OVER NW KANSAS WILL THEM
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SCOURED OUT
ENOUGH BEHIND DRYLINE TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF TAFS LATER
TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCLUDE WIND SHIFT AROUND 10Z.

TERRY

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1257 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-131200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1257 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE:
    HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
    AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
  AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.  ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
  AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI BETWEEN 3 PM AND 5 PM...THEN SPREAD
  EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

  INSTABILITY IS INCREASING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
  KANSAS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING DRY LINE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
  DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY AND
  INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
  AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY ALLOW
  STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
  LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
  INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...IF
  SOME CLEARING OCCURS...THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WIND
  SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

  IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
  GUST OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR
  WESTERN MISSOURI BETWEEN 3 PM AND 5 PM...WITH SPOTTER ACTIVATION
  POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SAW