Tornado and Hail in Missouri, November 12, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1135 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM SALINA KS
TO WICHITA TO WEST OF PONCA CITY. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
GENERATING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING.

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE INTENSITY OF
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ALREADY SEEING A
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SUSPECT
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS STRONG AND FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
AND POTENTIALLY SUPERCELL STORMS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LOW...BUT FOLLOWING SATELLITE TRENDS...WE
COULD SEE SOME CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST RUC SHOWS 0-1KM HELICITIES OF 200-300 M2/S2...INCREASING TO
AROUND 400 BY 03Z OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. CAPE VALUES ARE STILL
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...REMAINING BELOW 1000 J/KG IN THE RUC PROGS.
LATEST PROFILERS INDICATE STRONGEST WINDS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA. HOWEVER STILL SEEING ABOUT 80KTS AT 400 MB OFF THE
NEODESHA AND LAMONT PROFILERS.

WE JUST LAUNCHED A RADIOSONDE AND WILL HAVE SOUNDING DATA IN ABOUT
AN HOUR.

TERRY
&&

.AVIATION...
FOLLOWING RADAR TRENDS WILL KEEP TEMPO TO PREDOMINANT SHOWERS FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE 18Z TAFS. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TEMPO
THUNDER AFTER 21Z FOR BOTH AIRPORTS AS DRYLINE PUSHES QUICKLY
EASTWARD TO THE MO/KS BORDER. SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING AFTER 03Z AS
DRYLINE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. COLD FRONT OVER NW KANSAS WILL THEM
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SCOURED OUT
ENOUGH BEHIND DRYLINE TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF TAFS LATER
TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCLUDE WIND SHIFT AROUND 10Z.

TERRY
&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1257 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-131200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1257 PM CST SAT NOV 12 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE:
    HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
    AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
  AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.  ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
  AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI BETWEEN 3 PM AND 5 PM...THEN SPREAD
  EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

  INSTABILITY IS INCREASING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
  KANSAS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING DRY LINE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
  DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY AND
  INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
  AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY ALLOW
  STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
  LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
  INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...IF
  SOME CLEARING OCCURS...THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WIND
  SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

  IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
  GUST OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR
  WESTERN MISSOURI BETWEEN 3 PM AND 5 PM...WITH SPOTTER ACTIVATION
  POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SAW