Hail in Kansas, May 11, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
249 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...

EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS BEGUN TO LIGHT UP FROM MANHATTAN
KANSAS EAST THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. SURFACE BASED CAPE
AROUND 3500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES >30KTS ALL REINFORCE THE
OBVIOUS...THAT SUPERCELLS WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN INTERSTATE 70
AND MISSOURI HIGHWAY 36. LARGE HAIL (TO SOFTBALL IN SIZE) HAS
ALREADY BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS...AND WITH SHEAR VALUES
LOCALLY ENHANCED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...TORNADOS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE
ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WARM SOUTHWEST WINDS SEEM
TO HAVE PUT A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...AS EVIDENT BY THE LACK LUSTER
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CUMULUS FIELD.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECTATIONS ARE
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW...AND SHOULD PUSH THAT BOUNDARY NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE VORT MAX...CURRENTLY LIFTING FROM EASTERN KANSAS
THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WILL HAVE MOVED OFF THE BOUNDARY BY
THIS EVENING. NEXT CLOSEST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND SHOULD FOCUS MOST OF THE SEVERE
CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA AND IOWA. HOWEVER...WITH THE NUMEROUS
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM TODAYS CONVECTION...THERE COULD BE SEVERE
WEATHER WITH ANY OF THE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF MISSOURI HIGHWAY
50.

CUTTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

1102 AM...
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR THE CONVECTION THAT HAS
LINGERED ABOUT NORTHERN MISSOURI AND POPPED UP OVER EASTERN KANSAS.
SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUSHED AS FAR
SOUTH AS A LINE FROM LEAVENWORTH TO CARROLLTON AND MOBERLY. THOUGHTS
ARE THAT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO REFOCUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS THAT THE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI SHOULD
COME TO AN END. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
MAY CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE AS A VORT MAX...CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS...MOVES INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. 12Z TOPEKA
SOUNDING HAD A NICE CAP ON IT...BUT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND VORT
MAX MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND CAP EROSION TO
ALLOW A CHANCE OF STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEREFORE...I HAVE BROUGHT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MISSOURI RIVER. POINTS SOUTH OF THE RIVER SHOULD STAY STORM FREE
UNTIL MAYBE THIS NIGHT WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE
VICINITY.

CUTTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

710 AM...
FIRST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS APPEARS TO BE WASHING OUT NEAR THE MO
RIVER. A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURGED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST KS
AND INTO THE STJ AREA WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION FORMING ALONG IT.
WILL NEED TO ADJUST THUNDER CHANCES A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. HAVE SOME NEW CONCERNS THAT THIS SECOND BOUNDARY WILL
REINFORCE THE COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN MO SO HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURES BY A CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF CWA. ALSO
NOTICED THE STRATOCU WHICH HAS FOLLOWED THE COOLER AIR SOUTH. 06Z
NAM SHOVED THE SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHERN MO BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND CARRIED CONVECTION SOUTHWARD AS WELL. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR THEN FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE SCRUBBED WITH TEMPERATURES
LOWERED DRASTICALLY.

MJ

350 AM...
MAIN UPPER FEATURES OF LARGE CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION HANDLED FAIRLY WELL BY ETA/NAM/CANADIAN MODELS.
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MERGE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MORE POSITIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWER
FRONTAL MOVEMENT ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...MAIN MODEL PROBLEMS ARE THE
NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES NOTED IN THE GFS.

IN THE SHORT TERM PRIMARY PROBLEM IS HOW FAR SOUTH WILL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY GENERATED BY LARGE MCS OVER IA GET. WEST SIDE OF COLD POOL
HAS SLOWED ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION WITH MAIN PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN
IA. VEERING 850MB WINDS HAS RESULTED IN CONTINUED ELEVATED
CONVECTION NORTH OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THINK NAM TOO FAR SOUTH
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BY 18Z TODAY. THINK BETTER BET IS FOR OUTFLOW
TO REACH A LINE FROM BETWEEN STJ AND MCI TO AROUND MOBERLY THIS
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A
NARROW BAND OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTHERN MO FOR THIS MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY SOUTH OF WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAYS. ALONG AND NORTH OF PRIMARY WARM FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A CHALLENGE. AIRMASS SOUTH OF WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MINIMAL CAP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
WATCH REMNANTS OF TX/OK PANHANDLE CONVECTION AS MVC ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE COULD AID WITH RENEWED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WEST-EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THROUGH THURSDAY BEST BET FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MO
AND EAST CENTRAL KS WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES. THURSDAY SHOULD
SEE MORE CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WEST
CENTRAL MO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD DUE TO THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH.

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL MO
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD RESULT IN REPEAT STORMINESS AND THUS
HEAVY RAINFALL. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY COULD ALSO SEE SOME
TRAINING OF STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CWA AS UPPER FLOW WILL BE NEARLY
PARALLEL TO EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND THUS CELLS WILL HAVE
MINIMAL EASTWARD MOVEMENT.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
115 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-121200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-
SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-
CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-
JOHNSON-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
115 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH HIGH INSTABILITY AND GOOD SHEAR
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THE STORMS THAT ARE ACTIVATING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE. AREAS AT HIGHEST RISK OF SEEING SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LEAVENWORTH EAST
THROUGH CARROLLTON AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MOUND CITY MISSOURI TO
TRENTON...WITH LARGE HAIL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY ALL OF THESE STORMS.

THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...MAINLY NORTH
OF A ST JOSEPH TO MACON LINE. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAYBE SEVERE WITH
THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE SAME WEATHER SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAYS WEATHER WILL
LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SLOW MOVING. INITIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EXTREME EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
AND INDIVIDUAL STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND A REPEAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINS IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS ARE NEEDED NORTH INTERSTATE 70 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM SPOTTERS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND ON FRIDAY SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED OVER MOST
OF THE REGION.

CUTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
235 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 PM     HAIL             SMITHVILLE              39.38N 94.57W
05/11/2005  1.50 INCH        CLAY               MO   PUBLIC

            NEAR HOOVER ON B HIGHWAY

&&

HM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
237 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 PM     HAIL             KNOXVILLE               39.45N 94.02W
05/11/2005  0.25 INCH        RAY                MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

HM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
241 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0141 PM     HAIL             BRUNSWICK               39.42N 93.13W
05/11/2005  1.00 INCH        CHARITON           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED AS MOTHBALL.

&&

HM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
251 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     HAIL             LATHROP                 39.55N 94.33W
05/11/2005  0.25 INCH        CLINTON            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED IN TRIMBLE.

&&

HM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
258 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     HAIL             KINGSTON                39.64N 94.04W
05/11/2005  0.25 INCH        CALDWELL           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA HAIL ALSO REPORTED IN HAMILTON.

&&

HM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
313 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             BASEHOR                 39.13N 94.93W
05/11/2005  1.00 INCH        LEAVENWORTH        KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MJM