Hail in Kansas, June 2, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
951 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2005

.UPDATE...

STILL THINKING A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 2-3 AM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT, AHEAD OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, AM NOT
AM NOT OVERLY EXCITED, AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WEAK.

ADDITIONALLY, WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY/AREAS DENSE FOG DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT, WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE.
LOW-LEVELS REMAIN MOIST FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL, AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING (AND LACK OF MIXING) WILL BE MAXIMIZED UNDERNEATH RETREATING
SURFACE RIDGE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS FOR POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT. UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2005/

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE OFF/ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT:
WILL HAVE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTER STATED, MODELS SHOW DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 310-315K. WITH SOME
MOISTURE PRESENT AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE SOUNDINGS, CANNOT RULE OUT
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL
KANSAS AND OUR WESTERN PERIPHERY. COULD SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT FROM RECENT RAINS,
LIGHT WINDS, AND AROUND AREAS WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT:
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANY ONGOING CONVECTION THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIE
OUT AS A MID-LEVEL CAP STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. ANY
FOG THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE BY
AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS OUR
DEW POINTS WILL JUMP INTO THE MID 60S INTO THE AFTERNOON.

ISENTROPIC LIFT RETURNS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS
ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT,
WILL SEE DECENT CONVECTION CHANCES DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS
FURTHER SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH GOOD DIRECTION AND SPEED SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY:
A FAIRLY POTENT NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF CONVECTION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY:
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES MADE HERE TO MESH WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. ON
SUNDAY, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ONTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE OUR UPPER FLOW TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 80S AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE LOWER 90S, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN PERIPHERY DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION, THERE WILL REALISTICALLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
EACH OF THESE DAYS WITH ANY SHORTWAVE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA, BUT WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH POPS THIS FAR OUT.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  86  68  90 /  10  10  30  30
HUTCHINSON      61  85  67  90 /  10  20  40  30
NEWTON          61  85  67  89 /  10  10  30  30
ELDORADO        61  85  68  88 /  10  10  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  86  70  88 /  10  10  20  30
RUSSELL         61  85  65  90 /  20  20  50  30
GREAT BEND      61  85  65  90 /  20  20  40  30
SALINA          59  84  66  88 /  10  10  50  30
MCPHERSON       60  85  67  89 /  10  10  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     59  84  67  86 /  10  10  10  40
CHANUTE         59  84  66  86 /  10  10  10  40
IOLA            59  83  65  86 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KLEINSASSER/SEDLOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
958 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-021200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
958 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, SO PLEASE STAY TUNED IF
TRAVELING LATE TONIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY, WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT, GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
COTTONWOOD FALLS TO EL DORADO TO ARKANSAS CITY. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FOG OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FAVOR VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING OF
ANY WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS WHICH COULD TRIGGER SEVERE
WEATHER. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE DRY LINE
FIRING UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRINGING A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER, THIS POTENTIAL COULD CHANGE IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.

LATER IN THE WEEK MORE COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE THE
TIMING AND THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

COX/ES/TES/ADK