Funnel Cloud in Kansas, June 10, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
325 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS ARE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT. AN ACTIVE PATTERN THEN LOOKS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT. HOWEVER...FOR
SATURDAY TO MONDAY THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONTINUITY FROM ONE MODEL RUN
TO THE NEXT AND BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS. FORTUNATELY...FOR TONIGHT
WE HAVE A LOT OF OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT A FORECAST OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF KANSAS AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH IN THE WAKE OF
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WHICH HAS PUSHED LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS BACK INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THE AIRMASS WAS UNSTABLE IN
SPITE OF CLOUD COVER...WITH THE INSTABILITY OWING TO RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO
SPARK CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LOW CLOUD BASE AND LARGE
0-3KM CAPE...COULD SEE SOME BRIEF TORNADOES. THEN STRONG LIFT COMES ACROSS
THE AREA FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET SETS UP OVER THE REGION...PRODUCING DEEP
LIFT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS COMING
OFFTHE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO WILL AFFECT OUR COLORADO COUNTIES. THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN EVERYWHERE...BUT BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST WITH DYNAMICS
AND IN THE WEST WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DEVELOPMENT OFF THE TERRAIN.  DECIDED
TO ADD RED WILLOW AND DECATUR COUNTIES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN ONE TO TWO INCH RAINFALL...RECENT RAINS...AND
LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND TROF AXIS MOVES INTO NEBRASKA BY MORNING...SO SATURDAY
SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN MORE TERRAIN INDUCED STORMS MOVE
EAST OUT OF COLORADO. THE ETA AND GFS ALSO HINT AT SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FROM FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH 40 TO 50 POPS THERE.

THE FORECAST BECOMES VERY DIFFICULT AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PROBLEMS
THE MODELS ARE HAVING WITH A 150 KNOT JET CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT PATTERN SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE 06Z GFS AND
THE 12Z UKMET...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW EVEN WITH THESE. THERE SHOULD BE CONTINUED
ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER ON THE PLAINS...BUT TIMING AND LOCATION ARE IMPOSSIBLE
TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS POINT. THE MOST ACTIVE DAY FOR THE HIGH PLAINS MAY BE
SUNDAY...SO MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CHANCE POPS WHICH WERE ALREADY FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT BY TUESDAY. THEN NORTHWEST FLOW SETS
UP...WITH ENOUGH RETURN MOISTURE INTO COLORADO AND WEST CENTRAL KANSA TO SUPPORT
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.

MAIN CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES. DESPITE RIDGING OVER
THE ROCKIES...THE HIGH PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND JUST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT WITH AN UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ003...
      KSZ004...KSZ015...KSZ016.
.NE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ081.
.CO...NONE.

&&

BURKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1031 AM MDT FRI JUN 10 2005

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-111200-
CHEYENNE KS-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-DECATUR KS-DUNDY NE-GOVE KS-GRAHAM KS-
GREELEY KS-HITCHCOCK NE-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-LOGAN KS-NORTON KS-
RAWLINS KS-RED WILLOW NE-SHERIDAN KS-SHERMAN KS-THOMAS KS-WALLACE KS-
WICHITA KS-YUMA COUNTY CO-
1031 AM MDT FRI JUN 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTON...
GRAHAM...SHERIDAN AND GOVE COUNTIES OF KANSAS THROUGH 7 AM
CDT SATURDAY MORNING.

WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME HEAVY...HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATING 2
TO 5 INCHES. REPORTS OF STANDING WATER OVER PORTIONS OF SHERIDAN AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN COOLED AIR MASS. THE FRONT THAT WAS THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS
YESTERDAY IS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. LEFTOVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ARE DRAPED OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

AT THE SAME TIME...A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER NEW
MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SOME SUNSHINE...AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ABOUT ANYWHERE
AND ANY TIME DUE TO THE LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES.
HOWEVER...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHERE THE MOST CLEARING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.
IN FACT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG AND NEAR THE
FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER.

BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE. THE WIND PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. IF A STORM HAPPENS TO DEVELOP ON ONE OF THE
LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHT...A TORNADO COULD QUICKLY OCCUR.
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM NORTON TO HOXIE TO RUSSELL SPRINGS TO SHARON SPRINGS.
THIS INCLUDES THOSE COUNTIES IN THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
THIS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
PRIMARILY OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND
ADJACENT COUNTIES IN KANSAS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE RETURNS TO THE AREA MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
FLAGLER COLORADO TO HOXIE TO NORTON.

DDT/BULLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
652 PM MDT FRI JUN 10 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S WRAY                40.05N 102.23W
06/10/2005                   YUMA               CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING ACROSS HIGHWAY 385 SOUTH OF WRAY. WATER WAS
            REPORTED 70-80 FEET WIDE AND 6-7 INCHES DEEP FLOWING
            ACROSS HIGHWAY.

&&

MMEHLE