Winter Storm in Kansas, January 5, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1025 PM CST TUE JAN 4 2005

.UPDATE DISCUSSION...

MAJOR WINTER STORM ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT THINKING
GENERALLY ABOUT THE SAME AS DAY-SHIFT FORECASTER. WINTER STORM
WARNING ALL AREAS, WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LABETTE AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTY. LATEST CALLS TO SPOTTERS AND COUNTY LAW
ENFORCEMENT INDICATED A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS, WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW ALREADY
ACCUMULATED. IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX WILL
ENHANCE 850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA, ACTING TO
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. CONCERNED THAT
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT, GIVEN CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WEST TEXAS, AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE.
CONSEQUENTLY, ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE, WHERE THOSE LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED 1.5-3 INCHES OF RAIN.

WITH THE COLUMN COOLING BELOW FREEZING LATER TONIGHT, PRECIPITATION
WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. 4-7 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. LOCATIONS FROM KINGMAN,
HUTCHINSON, WICHITA, EL DORADO AND COTTONWOOD FALLS WILL CHANGE OVER
TO SLEET AND SNOW AFTER 3-4 AM. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE
FROM 2-4 INCHES. SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE, FREEZING RAIN LIKELY
WONT CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND SNOW UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE, WITH LESS
THAN 2 INCHES EXPECTED.

MAJOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS, COUPLED WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE POWER OUTAGES, DOWNED POWER
LINES, TREE LIMBS AND TREES. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR CONTINUED UPDATES.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
252 PM CST TUE JAN 4 2005

ICE STORM ONGOING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS THE MAJOR
CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM AS WELL AS FLOODING POTENTIAL IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW IS THE
CHALLENGE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FINALLY, VERY COLD AIR IS
ALSO A CONCERN BECAUSE OF THE PRIOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
WILL TRY TO BREAK THIS DOWN PERIOD DOWN BY HAZARD STARTING WITH
WINTRY PRECIPITATION, FLOODING POTENTIAL IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION:
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE VERY
CONCERNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW A PROLONGED AND INTENSE ICING
EVENT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A
DEEPER PUSH OF COLD AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
STARTING TONIGHT. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE COLD, SUB-FREEZING AIR FROM
THE SURFACE TO AROUND 800MB WHILE SHRINKING THE AREA ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL TRANSITION THE PRECIPITATION FROM
FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET LATE TONIGHT IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
TRANSITION WILL WORK TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE DEEPER COLD AIR WORKS SOUTH. THERE HAVE
ALREADY BEEN TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES TO COME DOWN OUTSIDE THE
OFFICE JUST DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF THE ICE ON THEM. TONIGHT, THE WIND
SPEED WILL PICK UP WITH WIND GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 20 MPH RANGE. THE
WIND WITH THE WEIGHT OF THE ICE ON TREES AND POWER LINES IS EXPECTED
TO DOWN EVEN MORE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES TONIGHT. THIS MESS OF ICE
AND SLEET WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AS THE MID-LEVELS
FALL BELOW FREEZING. THIS TRANSITION ALSO TAKE PLACE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH ALL OF THE WARNING AREA CHANGING TO SNOW BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE SYSTEM GIVING US THIS WEATHER MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST.

FLOODING:
ANOTHER HAZARD TO CONSIDER WITH THIS STORM IS THAT SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WILL SEE HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS
ARE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR MORE. SINCE THIS AREA WONT CHANGE
OVER TO FREEZING UNTIL LATER AND WITH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGING FROM
AROUND AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES, THERE EXISTS A THREAT OF FLOODING IN
THIS AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

TEMPERATURES:
THE OTHER BIG STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE COLD
AIR BEHIND IT. MOST OF THE AREA IS ALREADY BELOW FREEZING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ONCE
TEMPERATURES THERE FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT THE AREA IS NOT
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN UNTIL FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
SNOW AND ICE AROUND AND ON TREES LINES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WHICH COULD DOWN EVEN MORE LIMBS AND LINES DUE TO THE PROLONGED
STRESS FROM THE WEIGHT OF THE ICE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING:
THERE IS SOME GOOD NEWS HOWEVER. ONCE ALL THIS ICE AND SNOW ENDS AS
THE WAVE PUSHES EAST THE WEATHER PATTERN CALMS DOWN. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES BUT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST SURFACE WINDS SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND WARM THINGS UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

FRIDAY-TUESDAY:
BIG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ALASKA TO NORTHERN CANADA WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AND ALLOW FOR MORE TROFFING TO
TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT,
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PROVIDE
WARMER AND MORE UNSEASONABLE LIKE TEMPERATURES. WE MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS CREEP INTO THE PICTURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN. WE HAVE LEFT THE CHANCE OF RAIN OUT FOR NOW,
SINCE IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER
EAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    19  20   7  25 / 100  80  10   0
HUTCHINSON      16  17   4  22 / 100  70  10   0
NEWTON          18  19   6  23 / 100  80  20   0
ELDORADO        21  22   8  26 / 100  80  20   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   23  24   9  29 / 100  80  10   0
RUSSELL          9  10  -2  20 / 100  50  20   0
GREAT BEND      11  12   1  20 / 100  40  20   0
SALINA          14  15   1  20 / 100  70  20   0
MCPHERSON       15  16   3  21 / 100  70  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     30  31  13  29 / 100 100  20   0
CHANUTE         26  27  14  29 / 100 100  30   0
IOLA            25  26  14  29 / 100  90  30   0
&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING ALL AREAS
(EXCEPT MONTGOMERY AND LABETTE COUNTIES) UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONTGOMERY AND LABETTE COUNTIES 3 AM
THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM: 11/BOWMAN
LONG TERM: 18/COX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
245 PM CST TUE JAN 4 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-051200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
245 PM CST TUE JAN 4 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDE VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA. FLOODING COULD ALSO BECOME A PROBLEM FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT, AS RAIN PERSISTS. PLEASE
SEE LATEST WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WINTER STORM WILL STILL BE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, AS
FREEZING RAIN CHANGES OVER TO SNOW. AGAIN, PLEASE SEE LATEST WINTER
STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR DETAILS ON POSSIBLE AMOUNTS OF ICE
AND SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS OF ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

LAWSON/JAKUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
930 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     ICE STORM        WICHITA                 37.69N 97.34W
01/04/2005                   SEDGWICK           KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ANOTHER TREE UPROOTED AND DOWNED DUE TO ICE, A FEW BLOCKS
            SOUTHEAST OF 119TH STREET WEST AND CENTRAL.

&&

CDB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
958 PM CST TUE JAN 04 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 PM     ICE STORM        WICHITA                 37.69N 97.34W
01/04/2005                   SEDGWICK           KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            APPROXIMATELY 41,000 PEOPLE WITHOUT POWER IN THE WICHITA
            AREA.

&&
REPORT FROM WESTAR ENERGY VIA KAKE-TV

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
151 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     FREEZING RAIN    SEDAN                   37.13N 96.18W
01/05/2005  0.05 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         KS   AMATEUR RADIO

            FREEZING ON ELEVATED SURFACES.

0140 AM     FREEZING RAIN    IOLA                    37.93N 95.40W
01/05/2005  0.10 INCH        ALLEN              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ELEVATED SURFACES FREEZING.

0140 AM     ICE STORM        EL DORADO               37.82N 96.86W
01/05/2005                   BUTLER             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ENTIRE TREES DOWN DUE TO ICE ACCUMULATION, BLOCKING
            COUNTY ROADS. POWER OUTAGES TOO NUMEROUS TO COUNT.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
221 AM CST WED JAN 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     SNOW             LINCOLN                 39.04N 98.15W
01/05/2005  2.0 INCH         LINCOLN            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0200 AM     SNOW             RUSSELL                 38.89N 98.85W
01/05/2005  0.0 INCH         RUSSELL            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SNOW DEPTH 2 TO 4 INCHES.

&&

BDK