Flood in Kansas, August 26 to 28, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
745 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS OF CONVECTION REMAINING SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THINK
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WHERE A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY HEADING INTO.
OTHERWISE...AM THINKING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN NOT
APPEARING LIKELY...HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS EVENING.

STOFLET

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

318 PM...
HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE SHORT TERM CLOSELY THIS AFTN TO TRY AND
PREDICT THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE MAIN PROBLEM HAS
BEEN WORKING WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES PRESENT FROM LAST NIGHT...ALL
THE WHILE STANDING BY AS THE ATMOSPHERE TRIES TO DESTABILIZE. VIS
SAT SHOWS THAT CU IS BUBBLING...BUT IS FAIRLY FLAT IN ALL BUT
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  THE MAIN COLD FRONT CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AND JUST
HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO TRIGGER ANY CONVECTION ALONG IT.  FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE OUTFLOW/FRONT...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.  AS
CONVECTION PLACEMENT HAS FINALLY SHOWN ITS HAND...WE HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO LOWER POPS IN ALL BUT OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN CASE ANY
STORMS ARE ABLE TO EDGE INTO THAT AREA.  THE MOISTURE IS POOLING
DOWN THERE...AND CAPES ARE IN THE THOUSANDS...SO THIS IS THE
FAVORABLE SPOT IF THINGS WERE GOING TO FIRE. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE
CAP THERE...SO WE WILL SEE IF WE CAN BREAK IT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO.  THIS AREA IS ALSO WHERE WE HAVE RETAINED THE FLOOD WATCH.
WE HAVE LEFT LOW POPS ELSEWHERE...AS DPTS ARE NEAR 70 AND THE FRONT
IS NOT THROUGH YET.

IT WOULD NOT BE RIGHT TO CALL THIS A COLD FRONT...AS COLDER TEMPS
JUST DO NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA.  H8 TEMPS ARE STILL NEAR 20 FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
SAT/SUN...BUT STILL HAVE TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...LOWS IN
THE MID 60S.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON ANOTHER COLD FRONT
POISED TO COME THROUGH.  THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON
TIMING...THURSDAY-ISH.  DGEX DEPICTS SOMETHING LIKE POST FRONTAL
PRECIP...AND GFS IS DRY FROPA.  THINK THE FRONT MAY MAKE IT ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE CWA BY THURSDAY AFTN. THE 00Z GFS SHOWED
THIS...WHILE THE 06Z WAS FASTER.  HAVE PUT THE WIND SHIFT IN THE
GRIDS...BUT ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SO FAR. FOR NOW...
STILL HAVE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON THURS WHICH WILL NEED TO
BE LOWERED IF THE TREND STARTS LOOKING MORE LIKE RAIN.  H8 TEMPS
DONT WARM MUCH IN THE EXTENDED...WITH READINGS LOOKING LIKE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

1250 PM...
CONDITIONS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.  UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WELL NORTH OF AREA GIVING
BETTER SUPPORT TO DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF MISSOURI...AND ONLY WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT IN THE AREA MAKING DEVELOPMENT LESS LIKELY
IN NORTHERN MISSOURI.  ALSO MORNING CLOUDS HAVE SLOWED WARM UP
TODAY...SO MAY BE TOUGH TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. IF
SOMETHING DOES GO...WOULD LIKELY BE LATE IN THE DAY. CURRENTLY...
BETTER DESTABILIZATION HAPPENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  WITH LEFT
OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOT THAT FAR SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA...WILL
LEAVE HIGHEST POPS IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA. ALSO WILL LEAVE
FLOOD WATCH GOING AS WE HAVE ALREADY PUT SEVERAL RIVERS INTO FLOOD
AND IF RAIN DOES REDEVELOP...WOULD BE EASY TO SEE MORE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

PC

320 AM...
A CLOSED UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA IS THE MOST EVIDENT
FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WHILE SEVERAL MORE
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ARE COMBINING WITH A DECENT FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TO FUEL A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS.
ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST ON LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS
HELPED ORGANIZE ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS SHOULD
REACH NORTHWEST MISSOURI BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE LIKELY POPS ORIENTED
ACCORDINGLY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
LULL IN CONVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND/OR POTENTIAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO FORECAST TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS AND ACCOMPANYING
LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES (HOURLY VALUES UNDER ONE INCH)
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...COMBINED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEED OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND FOCI FOR
PRECIPITATION...WARRANT CONTINUATION OF THE FLOOD WATCH AT LEAST
UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE GFS IS INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...SO HAVE PROLONGED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...AND MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE WATCH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS WELL.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY...MAIN QUANDARIES ARE
REGARDING EXACTLY WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE AFFECT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ON
DESTABILIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT ACCOMPANYING STORMS THAT ARE ABLE
TO BECOME ORGANIZED/STRONGER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...HAVE CONTINUED TO GO WITH THE
COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH SATURDAY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
AREAS OF PRECIP TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE. EXPECT 850MB
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...MODELS PROG ANOTHER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH...TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN THE MODELS SUGGEST.

LS/NRR

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
445 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
445 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

IT NOW APPEARS THAT ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
940 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     FLOOD            3 NW OTTERVILLE         38.73N 93.04W
08/26/2005                   COOPER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER WAS OVER THE ROADS ON CONSERVATION DRIVE AND MOUNT
            MORIAH ROAD AS A RESULT OF FLOODING ON THE LAMINE RIVER.

&&

MAS