Hail in Iowa, June 9, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
320 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIONS THRU THE DAY OF FIRST SHOT OF HVY RAIN DVLPG AND SPRDG
INTO WRN FCST AREA MAINLY W OF JAMES RVR ARE BEAREING OUT. BEST
MOISTR CONVERGNCE HAS CONTINUALLY BEEN S OF THE WRN PART OF FCST
AREA WHERE CONVECTN CONTS TO DVLP. MEANWHILE LTL SUPPOER FOR DECENT
RAIN TO THE E WITH STABLZD AIR TO THE S. HWVR THIS SHUD CHANGE LATE
TNGT AS DECENTLY DEFINED SHRTWV APPCHS WITH ITS LIFT AND PLENTY OF
MOISTR AVBL THEWREFORE WQILL CONT TO GO FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN
POTENTL LATE TNGT FOR ROUGHLY W OF YKN TO FSD THEWN DOWN TO E OF
SUX. WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR THIS ESPLY AS THIS IS THE AREA
MOST SATURATED.

ACTVTY SHUD TAIL OFF FROM THE SW LATE TNGT AND ERY FRI MRNG. THEN WE
WILL AWAIT NEXT SHOT FRI NGT INTO SAT. ON THIS THINK ETA DOES A
RATHER MPOOR JOB IN KEEPNG SYS TOO WK BUT ESPLY TOO FAR SW. LIKE
ACTVTY TNGT EXZPCT SUPPORT FOR SHWRS/TSTMS INCLUDG HVY RAIN TO BE
FRTHR NW THAN WHERE SOME MODELS HAVE IT...THO GFS SEEMS TO BE BETTER
FOR FRI NGT. THIS SHOT OF COURSE WILL BE OVER THE SERN FCST AREA BUT
NOT SE OF FCST AREA AS ETA IS SHOWING. WILL ALSO MENTN HVY RAIN SE
FRI NGT.

SAT SHUD SEE ANOTHER TAILOFF BY LATE IN THE DAY. SUN/MON SUS MORE
QSTNBL WITH SOME PTENTL FOR MORE HVY RAIN AND PRBLYT BETTER SVR WX
POTENTL IF MODEL TREND FOR SEEPR STGR SYS CONTS.

WILL CONT TO GO WITH THE DRY PATTERN IDEA FOR TUE THRU THU. LAST
UPPER LOW SHUD BE LIFTG OUT BY LATE MON OR MON NGT...THEN ALL MODELS
SHOW NWRLY UPR FLOW WITH SOME RDGNG OVER AREA. EVENTUALLY TSTMS THIS
PATTRN NOT OUT OF QSTN BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL BREAK THIS WET
PATTRN.

TEMPS OF COURSE WILL BE MODIFIED BY CLDS AND PCPN NEXT SVRL DAYS SO
NOTHNG REAL WARM. HWVR WILL NOT GO EXTRAORDINARILY COOL EITHER WITH
MUCH OF THE RAIN DUE TO FALL AT NIGHT. SOME WARMNG EXPECTED EVEN
WHEN SKIES STAY MOCLDY DURG DAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLOOD WATCH 7PM TNGT-NOON FRIDAY SDZ061-062-065>071.
MN...FLOOD WATCH 7PM TNGT-NOON FRIDAY MNZ098.
IA...FLOOD WATCH TNGT-NOON FRIDAY IAZ001-012-020-031.
NE...FLOOD WATCH TNGT-NOON FRIDAY NEZ013-014.

&&

WILLIAMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1150 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-101200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1150 AM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST
CHANCES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...MAINLY
SOUTH OF A YANKTON TO SPENCER IOWA LINE.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER NEBRASKA AND SPREAD NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

FLOODING...
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WITH THE GROUND NEARLY SATURATED IN THESE
AREAS ALREADY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TO FALL IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH THESE
STORMS. IN ADDITION...LOCAL STREAMS AND CREEKS...SOME OF WHICH
ARE ALREADY RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL...MAY SEE RAPID RISES DUE TO
THE RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE
FOUND ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.