Hail and Damaging Winds in Indiana, May 13, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
345 AM EST FRI MAY 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...MANY CONCERNS THIS FCST INCLUDING SVR WX...TODAY AND
TNGT...TSTM CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND TEMPS THROUGH MANY OF THE
PERIODS.

WX CALM ACRS THE CNTRL INDIANA FOR NOW WITH MAINLY JUST CI STARTING
TO SPREAD E ACRS THE NRN AND WRN FA. NATIONAL/REGIONAL LOOP WAS
SHOWING LG AREA OF RWS/TRWS EXTENDING FM NRN WI TO NRN IL TO WRN
OK AHEAD OF VIGOROUS UPR LOW ACRS THE DAKOTAS...SHORT WAVE ACRS THE
OK PANHANDLE AND INVOF OF A FRONTAL SYS. AT 06Z...THE WARM FNT
EXTENDED FM THE SFC LOW ACRS WRN IA TO NERN TN...AND THE CD FNT
EXTENDED FM THE LOW SW ACRS KS.

WL GO WITH THE NAM IN THE FIRST SEVERAL PERIODS AS 00Z NAM 6 HOUR
QPF AND SFC PROGS WERE FAR SUPERIOR TO THE GFS. WARM TO LIFT QUICKLY
NE ACRS THE FA AND INTO SRN LWR MI THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TNGT PER THE NAM. STG
INSTABILITY WL DVLP AS THE WARM SECTOR MOVES IN. MODELS PRODUCE
CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DECENT ALBEIT
NOT INCREDIBLE WIND SHEAR (1000-700 MB SPEED SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS
WITH 30 DEGREES OF VEERING WITH HEIGHT). FA WL ALSO BE IN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 100 KT 250 MB JET ACRS THE UPR GT LKS. IN
ADDITION...MODELS SPREAD 1.50 PRECIP H20 ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TNGT. SO...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RN COULD BE A THREAT. COULD ALSO BE A FEW TORNADOES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ESP N OF A HUF-IND-MIE LINE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
STRONGER SHEAR AND 35-40 KT LOW LVL JET. IN KEEPING WITH NAMS
QPF...WL GO WITH CHC POPS THIS MRNG WITH LIKELY POPS N AND W THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CD FNT APPROACHES KLAF BY 12Z SAT WITH PLNTY OF TSTMS
EXPECTED ACRS THE ENTIRE FA TNGT. WENT WITH OCCASIONAL POPS
EVERYWHERE. MORE RWS/TRWS ON SAT ESP S AND E AND ESP IN THE MRNG.
KEEP A SLGT CHC OF RWS IN ON SAT NGT AHEAD OF VORTEX DROPPING SE
OUT OF CNTRL CANADA.

WITH DECENT WAA AND SOME SS...PREFER WARMER FWC TODAY. MOS PRETTY
CLOSE TNGT AND APPEARS TO HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA OF KEEPING TEMPS UP
WITH FROPA NOT COMING UNTIL SAT MRNG. CLDS WL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP ON
SATURDAY...AND WITH FNT MOVING THROUGH...PREFER COOLER MET/GFS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KOCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1250 PM EST FRI MAY 13 2005

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-141100-
BARTHOLOMEW-BOONE-BROWN-CARROLL-CLAY-CLINTON-DAVIESS-DECATUR-
DELAWARE-FOUNTAIN-GREENE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HENDRICKS-HENRY-HOWARD-
JACKSON-JENNINGS-JOHNSON-KNOX-LAWRENCE-MADISON-MARION-MARTIN-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-OWEN-PARKE-PUTNAM-RANDOLPH-RUSH-SHELBY-SULLIVAN-
TIPPECANOE-TIPTON-VERMILLION-VIGO-WARREN-
1250 PM EST FRI MAY 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8PM EST...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MILES AN HOUR AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. A SQUALL LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WHICH
MAY PRODUCE MORE DANGEROUS WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER THIS EVENING.

&&
MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT OUR WEBSITE...

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IND