Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, May 13, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
210 PM EST FRI MAY 13 2005

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTH RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CWA ATTM. AMPLE
SUNSHINE IN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR LEADING TO MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION AS MID 60S DEWPOINTS ADVECT QUICKLY NORTH THROUGH
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. SURFACE TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTING MLCAPE OF
AROUND 2000J/KG. VWP AND PROFILERS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOWING
MODERATE MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTICELL SYSTEMS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. FAIRLY LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 11K FEET ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS
TO SPREAD HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING TCU ALREADY DEVELOPING WHERE RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS RETURNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH GOING FORECAST WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING
LARGE SCALE LIFT MAY MAINTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WITH MODE OF CONVECTION LIKELY BECOMING MORE LINEAR IN NATURE AFTER
DARK. FORECAST PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE WITH SEVERE MENTION AND HAS
BEEN UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 267.

FOR SATURDAY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. SPC CONTINUES DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK. WILL CONTINUE WITH GOING
FORECAST FOR LIKELY SHRA/TSRA OVER THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR THE MIDDLE OF MAY WILL SPILL INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AND THIS
AIRMASS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BOTH GFS AND NAM WERE SIMILAR WITH THE STRENGTH OF A CLOSE H5 LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TO A POSITION OVER ERN ONTARIO BY
MONDAY.  COLD...UNSTABLE AIR...COMBINED WITH A FEW EMBEDDED S/WVS
SPINNING AROUND THE UPR LOW WILL WARRANT A CHC OF LIGHT SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  PLENTY OF 850 MB MSTR LINGERS ACRS THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY...SO HAVE OPTED TO GO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SKY
CONDITION THROUGH MONDAY.  COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE NOT DECIDED ON A CONSENSUS FOR THE
STORM TRACK FOR MID WEEK.  SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A S/WV AND FRONTAL SYSTEM (APCHING FROM THE
WEST) WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS ON EXACT
POSITION OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM (I.E. WILL IT BE FARTHER NORTH
OR FARTHER SOUTH)...HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF/HPC SOLUTION FOR
TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER SYSTEM DURING MID WEEK...WHICH
SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION DURING MID TO LATE WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...IT SHOULD BE QUITE COOL FOR MAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 50S.  TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A GRADUAL MODERATION TOWARD
NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IN...NONE.
.MI...NONE.
.OH...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
455 AM EST FRI MAY 13 2005

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-140954-
ADAMS IN-ALLEN OH-ALLEN IN-BERRIEN MI-BLACKFORD IN-BRANCH MI-CASS MI-
CASS IN-DE KALB IN-DEFIANCE OH-ELKHART IN-FULTON OH-FULTON IN-
GRANT IN-HENRY OH-HILLSDALE MI-HUNTINGTON IN-JAY IN-KOSCIUSKO IN-
LA PORTE IN-LAGRANGE IN-MARSHALL IN-MIAMI IN-NOBLE IN-PAULDING OH-
PULASKI IN-PUTNAM OH-ST. JOSEPH MI-ST. JOSEPH IN-STARKE IN-
STEUBEN IN-VAN WERT OH-WABASH IN-WELLS IN-WHITE IN-WHITLEY IN-
WILLIAMS OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANGOLA...ARCHBOLD...AUBURN...
BENTON HARBOR...BENTON HEIGHTS...BERNE...BLUFFTON...BREMEN...BRYAN...
BUCHANAN...BUTLER...COLDWATER...COLUMBIA CITY...DECATUR...DEFIANCE...
DELPHOS...DOWAGIAC...DUNKIRK...DUNLAP...ELKHART...FAIR PLAIN...
FAIRMOUNT...FORT SHAWNEE...FORT WAYNE...GARRETT...GAS CITY...
GEORGETOWN...GOSHEN...GRANGER...GRISSOM AFB...GULIVOIRE PARK...
HARTFORD CITY...HICKSVILLE...HILLSDALE...HUNTINGTON...KENDALLVILLE...
KNOX...LA PORTE...LAGRANGE...LIGONIER...LIMA...LOGANSPORT...MARION...
MICHIGAN CITY...MISHAWAKA...MONTICELLO...MONTPELIER...NAPOLEON...
NAPPANEE...NEW HAVEN...NILES...NORTH MANCHESTER...OSSIAN...OTTAWA...
PERU...PLYMOUTH...PORTLAND...ROCHESTER...SIMONTON LAKE...
SOUTH BEND...ST. JOSEPH...STURGIS...SWANTON...SYRACUSE...
THREE RIVERS...TRAIL CREEK...TRI-LAKES...UPLAND...VAN WERT...
WABASH...WARSAW...WAUSEON...WESTVILLE...WINAMAC AND WINONA LAKE
455 AM EST FRI MAY 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM IOWA TODAY CAUSING WARM MOIST AIR TO SURGE INTO THE AREA. AS THE
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS.  A FEW
OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOVING
NORTHEAST AROUND 35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A NAPOLEON OHIO TO PORTLAND INDIANA LINE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY REQUIRED BE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.