Flash Flooding and Hail in Indiana, July 20 to 21, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EST WED JUL 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS NW INDIANA WEST INTO IL. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED CELLS CONT TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN CWA. SPC HAS
ISSUED SVR TS WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF NRN
INDIANA.

OVRALL MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. WL USE BLEND.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WL BE TSRA CHC OVR NEXT FEW DAYS.

VERY MOIST AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONT TO PREVAIL OVR THE FA. TONIGHT
WL BE NO EXCEPTION. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
OVRNGT. IN ADDITION...SHOULD SEE AN MCS MV ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA
OVRNGT. BOTH GFS/NAM PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE. PPW VALUES ARE OVR
1.5 ACROSS FA. LIS ARE WELL BLO 0C WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONT TO SHOW VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THRU
OVRNGT HRS. AS MCS MVS ACROSS FA...HEAVY RAIN WL BE THE MAIN ISSUE.
IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS THREAT EXISTS. WL INCREASE
POPS WITH HIGHEST POPS OVR NW FA AND TAPER BACK OVR SE.

STATIONARY FNT WL SLOWLY MV ACROSS CTRL AREA DURING THE DAY THU. FNT
WL NOT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF AS IT WL MEANDER ACROSS THE FA. IN
ADDITION...UNSTABLE AIR OVR CWA WL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF TSRA. LIS WELL BLO 0C AND CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG. WL ONCE AGAIN MENTION TSRA THU ACROSS FA. SPC DOES HAVE MUCH
OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK. IN ADDITION...PPW VALUES ARE STILL RUNNING
WELL OVR 1.5. WL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE POSSIBLE FLOODING
ISSUES.

SIMILAR SET-UP THU NGT AS COMPARED TO TONIGHT. MCS COULD FORM ONCE
AGAIN AND MV ACROSS FA. STILL UNSTABLE WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE. THESE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WL REALLY DEPEND ON WHERE BOUNDARIES ARE
LOCATED. FOR NOW...WL KEEP POPS THE SAME THU.

MET GUIDANCE A BIT COOL TONIGHT CONSIDERING EXPECTED CLD CVR
ASSOCIATED WITH MCS. WL LEAN TOWARD WARMER MAV NUMBERS. THU MAV
HIGHS ARE A BIT COOL. SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE. WL GO WITH WARMER
MET NUMBERS. THU NGT...MOS IN GOOD SHAPE. WL USE BLEND.

STILL LOOKS HOT THIS WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX SHOULD BE IN UPPER 90S TO
THE LOWER 100S. FOR NOW...HWO HIGHLIGHTS ISSUE. WL NOT ISSUE ANY
HEAT WARNINGS JUST YET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 PM EST WED JUL 20 2005

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-211100-
BARTHOLOMEW-BOONE-BROWN-CARROLL-CLAY-CLINTON-DAVIESS-DECATUR-
DELAWARE-FOUNTAIN-GREENE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HENDRICKS-HENRY-HOWARD-
JACKSON-JENNINGS-JOHNSON-KNOX-LAWRENCE-MADISON-MARION-MARTIN-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-OWEN-PARKE-PUTNAM-RANDOLPH-RUSH-SHELBY-SULLIVAN-
TIPPECANOE-TIPTON-VERMILLION-VIGO-WARREN-
340 PM EST WED JUL 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THIS IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
IS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE YEAR TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S MAY PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&
MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT OUR WEBSITE...

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IND

PUMA/JB