Tornadoes in Texas, July 20, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
427 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

.SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...HURRICANE EMILY NOW JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST THIS MORNING WITH RAIN BANDS
MOVING THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL BEND.  EXPECT STORM TO MAKE LANDFALL
WITH THE NEXT FEW HOURS OR SO AND CONTINUE WNW INTO MEXICO DURING
THE DAY.  OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO SOUTH TEXAS
AND SOME EXPANSION NORTHWARD IS LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING WHEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM HEATING IS ADDED.  WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH POPS
MAINLY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE EVENING.  HIGHEST POPS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES.  PLENTY OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO SOUTH TX FROM
THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL CARRY 40 POPS AREAWIDE.

WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS RAIN BANDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.  WILL ALSO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY AND EXPAND IT ALONG
THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH 30 MPH...HIGHER VELOCITIES ALOFT SHOULD
BE ABLE TO EASILY MIX DOWN WITH ANY STRONGER BANDS THAT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY IN THESE BANDS.  WILL
ALSO FRESHEN UP THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WITH LATEST TIDE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG-TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE MAIN CHANGE FOR
THIS PACKAGE WAS TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA ON SUN AND MON.  IR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THIS FEATURE CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  WL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR THE SUN-MON
TIMEFRAME.  THE MAIN SUBTROPICAL HIGH WL REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR
NORTH AND KEEP SOUTH TX IN A RELATIVELY DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FCST PD.  THIS WL MEAN THAT WE WL HAVE A WK TO NIL CAP
ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND THE SEABREEZE TO JUSTIFY ISOLATED
TO LOW CHC POPS EVERYDAY.  TEMPS WL BE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

CORPUS CHRISTI  88 78 93 75 93 /  80 50 40 20 30
VICTORIA        90 76 94 74 95 /  70 30 40 20 30
LAREDO          89 77 94 79 99 / 100 70 40 20 30
ALICE           88 76 94 74 96 /  90 50 40 20 30
ROCKPORT        88 81 93 78 93 /  80 40 40 20 30
COTULLA         91 76 95 75 98 /  80 60 40 20 30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ARANSAS...CALHOUN...
     KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES
     THROUGH 700 PM TODAY.

     FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WEBB...DUVAL...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...NUECES AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM TODAY.

     WIND ADVISORY FOR DUVAL...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
     PATRICIO...REFUGIO...AND ARANSAS THROUGH 400 PM TODAY.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.

&&

JD/91...SHORT-TERM
MB/80...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
537 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-202100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
ARANSAS-BEE-CALHOUN-DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-
MCMULLEN-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-WEBB-
537 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HURRICANE EMILY IS MAKING LANDFALL THIS MORNING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST WITH OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING INTO SOUTH TEXAS.  THESE
RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH OVER
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN SQUALLS.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAIN BANDS.
COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE BARRIER ISLAND AND BAYS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND SWELLS CONTINUE.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE WAS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TIDE LEVELS WILL
BEGIN TO FALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

OVER THE WATERS...DANGEROUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON.  SEAS ARE RUNNING 10 TO 15 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS
AND 17 TO 21 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

LINGERING LARGE SWELLS PRODUCED BY HURRICANE EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECAY ON THURSDAY.  RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO LINGER ACROSS AREA
BEACHES ON THURSDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF SWELLS AND RIP CURRENTS
WILL MAKE CONDITIONS DANGEROUS FOR SWIMMERS.  CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SEAS CONTINUE TO SETTLE
DOWN.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING IF INTENSE RAIN
BANDS DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE COASTAL BEND.

DUNN
MB