Flooding and Heavy Rain in Indiana, August 30, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
935 PM EST MON AUG 29 2005

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER OUR ENTIRE AREA THIS
EVENING. RAIN WAS CONTINUING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  RECENT LOOPS
SHOW ONLY A FEW SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT SO WILL DOWN PLAY CHANCES OF
RAIN LATER TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN 2/3 OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ETA SHOWS
ONLY A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT SO NORTHERN PORTIONS MAY STAY
DRY UNTIL MORNING.

ANOTHER CHANGE TO FORECAST WILL BE TO ADD FLOOD WATCH OVER OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A WASHINGTON TO GREENSBURG LINE. HURICANE CENTER TAKES KATRINA
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST INDIANA LATE TUESDAY INTO OHIO. GFS AND ETA
ARE PLACING HEAVIEST RAINFALL JUST NORTH OF THIS TRACK. HPC
INDICATES 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ZONES TUESDAY.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MAIN FCST PROBLEM IS TRACK OF REMNANTS OF
KATRINA AND AFFECT ON CWA. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF HURRICANE HAVE BEEN
SPREADING NORTH THIS AFTN. BAND OF RAIN MOVG NORTH ACROSS OH RIVER
AT ABOUT 15KT...AROUND SAME SPEED AS HURRICANE MOVG NORTH THROUGH
SRN MS. THIS RAIN BAND LOCATED ALONG LINGERING NRN STREAM ENE-WSW
ORIENTED 850MB TROF AND THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH
OF KATRINA. MODELS SIMILAR ON TRACK OF KATRINA THROUGH 12Z TUE, THEN
GFS ACCELERATES SYSTEM NE MUCH FASTER THAN NAM. USED A COMPROMISE
ROUTE WHICH IS SIMILAR TO HPC/TPC FCST. DESPITE SIMILAR SFC PRES
SOLUTIONS TONIGHT, CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES WRT QPF. GIVEN RAIN BAND
EDGING NORTH ACROSS OH RIVER ATTM, LEANED TOWARD GFS QPF/POPS
BRINGING RAIN INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT...WHICH ALSO IS SIMILAR
TO HPC QPF FCST. WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OCRG TO EAST OF
CENTER OF KATRINA AND EXPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE AS IT MOVES N-NE,
THUS, EXPECT TSTM COVERAGE OVER CWA WILL JUST BE SCT. GIVEN DEEP
MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING TROPICAL SYSTEM, CONTD WITH HEAVY RAIN FCST
ACROSS THE SE WHERE FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. AROUND 3 QPF IN THIS
AREA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER A 36HR PD. GIVEN DRY INITIAL
CONDITIONS/LOW RIVER LEVELS, EXPECT ANY FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED
AND THUS, NO FFA ISSUED ATTM. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-25MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS KATRINA APPROACHES AND PASSES BY TO THE EAST TUE
AFTN/NIGHT WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER SE PORTION OF CWA.

REMAINDER OF FCST IS DRY. WK UPR LEVEL TROFFING SHOULD CONT ACROSS
THE GRTLKS WITH GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING WITH JUST OCNL WK
SFC TROFS MOVG THROUGH DURING THE WED NIGHT-SAT PD, WITH RIDGING
BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED AT ALL LEVELS OVER THE GRTLKS/MDWST BY
SUN-MON.

LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMP FCST WHICH WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH LATEST MOS NUMBERS.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WASHINGTON TO GREENSBURG LINE.

&&

DJT/JEH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
547 AM EST MON AUG 29 2005

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-301100-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
547 AM EST MON AUG 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

LIGHTNING
HEAVY RAIN

DISCUSSION:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST OF TERRE HAUTE TO TIPTON LINE. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF A SHOALS TO GREENSBURG LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA MOVE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A SHOALS TO GREENSBURG LINE.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE)

JAS