Strong Wind in Illinois, November 15 to 16, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
753 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

.DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS...

WINDS BLOWING UP TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. PERUSING 900-950 MB PROGS
SHOWING WINDS TO 40 KTS AT THAT LEVEL WITH INVERSION ABOVE THAT
LEVEL AND DOWNSLOPE TO THE SFC BELOW IT. THESE WINDS AT 900 MB ARE
FCST TO CONTINUE AS SFC LOW DEPARTING TO NORTHEAST TIGHTENS WHILE
EXITING ARENA...THUS MAINTAINING STATUS QUO THRU WED AFTN. SHUD SEE
SOME LOOSENING GRADIENT IN SRN COUNTIES AROUND NOONTIME...RELAXING
NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTN. HAVE CARRIED ADVISORY THRU 4PM TOMORROW
FOR ALL COUNTIES THOUGH. SRN COUNTIES MAY BE DROPPED AS TIME AND
CONDITIONS WARRANT. THAT END TIME IS ALSO CONVENIENT FOR THE
MANDATORY AFTERNOON ZONE ISSUANCE.

BRUMER

.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS...

DEEP SFC LOW LOCATED JUST S OF PIA AT 21Z WITH WMFNT EXTENDING EWRD
INTO NRN IND AAND CDFNT SWRD ACROSS MO BOOTHEEL INTO FAR ERN AK. STG
PRE FALL CNTR OVR NERN IL AND LOW PRES WILL CONT TO MOV QUICKLY
NNEWRD AND ACROSS CHI VC LATE AFTERNOON/ERLY EVE AS UPR LO OVR IA
RAPIDLY LIFTS TO FAR NERN WI BY 06Z. FA HAS BEEN IN COOL SECTOR WITH
LAPSE RATES ABV INVERSION NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC PER 18Z ILX RAOB. DRY
SLOT RAPIDLY PUNCHING ACROSS NRN IL TO CNTRL LK MI ENDING RA/SHRA
OVR FA.SIG SN FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF IA AND MN TODAY BUT WITH UPR
SYSTEM RAPIDLY LIFTING THE ENHANCED CLOUDSOF THE BAROCLINIC LEAF
WILL STA TO NW OF FA. AFTER LINGERING ERLY EVE SHRA END ONLY EXPECT
SOME -SHSN OR FLURRIES ACROSS NRN IL AS STG CAA SETS IN AND LLVLS
REMAIN MOIST AND CYCLONIC FLO PERSISTS. DEPARTING LO AND COLD HI
PRESS BUILDING INTO NRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND WED RESULTING IN STG
WINDS ACROSS PLAINS. THESE STG WINDS TO CONT TO SPREAD E ACROSS MS
RIVER TONIGHT BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO ADV CRITERIA.

STG CAA CONTS THRU THE DAY WED AND INTO WED NIGHT...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPS WED RISING LITTLE IF ANY FM TNGT/S LOWS...AND WILL BY AT OR
BLO FREEZING BEFORE SUNSET. VERY COLD AIR UPSTRM WITH CURRENT TEMPS
ONLY IN THE TEENS IN NRN ND INTO S CNTRL CANADA. EVEN WITH WARM
GROUND EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO TEENS ACROSS FA BY ERLY THU MORNING.

CHC OF -SN LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS WITH WAA AHEAD OF
SHRTWV TROF DROPPING ACROSS UPR MIDWEST...THO BETTER CHC FURTHER N
WHERE WAA AND UVV GREATER.

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS...

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN DPA AND DKB CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...BUT
IS TAKING A MORE NNELY TRACK AS COLD AIR IS DRAWN INTO IT.  EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...THE EASTERN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN UNDER IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WHILE THEY ARE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT.  THE RFD AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN IFR...BUT BEING WEST OF THE LOW IS IS MORE SUBJECT TO
COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW.  AS THE LOW PASSES TO
THE NNE...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE CHICAGO VCNTY
TAFS WILL BE IN A SMALL WARM SECTOR AND SKIES MAY IMPROVE TO
MVFR...HENCE HAVE INCLUDED A SHORT TEMPO GROUP.  BY 03Z...THE LOW
WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH
THE CHICAGO VCNTY TAF SITES AND WINDS WILL SHIFT SSWLY AND INCREASE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE EXITING LOW STRENGTHENS
CONSIDERABLY.  WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35-45KT.  CEILING SHOULD REMAIN IFR/LIFR THROUGH
AROUND 08Z AS THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS WRUNG OUT BY THE COLD AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW...BUT BY AROUND SUNRISE...CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND GUSTY
WINDS KEEP THINGS STIRRED UP.  THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
PERSIST WHILE THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WLY-NWLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW.

KREIN

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...WIND ADVISORY TIL 4PM WED.
.IN...WIND ADVISORY TIL 4PM WED.
.LM...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
      NEARSHORE WATERS.
      STORM WARNING IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
      AFTERNOON NORTH HALF.
      GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THROUGH WEDNESDAY
      AFTERNOON SOUTH HALF.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
745 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>022-023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-
019-161200-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DU PAGE-COOK-
LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-
LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
745 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE... OVERNIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO 30 MPH
OR GREATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 400 PM CST
WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN RELAXING IN THE AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (LOWER CASE)

LMZ740>745-766-161200-
WINTHROP HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN-
LAKE MICHIGAN-
745 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

THIS PORTION OF THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE... OVERNIGHT

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OPEN
WATERS OF SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. SOUTHWEST GALES TO 45 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OPEN WATERS TONIGHT WITH WAVES
BUILDING TO 10 TO 14 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OPEN
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WEST GALES TO 45 KNOTS.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE
NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (LOWER CASE)