Flash Flood in Illinois, November 14, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
318 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

MAIN CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM NEAR
DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO NEAR LITTLE ROCK.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE CONVERGENCE.  THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...AS THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

LATE THIS EVENING THE 12Z GFS CRANKS OUT A BUNCH OF QPF ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT IT IS OBVIOUSLY CONTAMINATED BY INTENSE GRID SCALE
FEEDBACK.  WE LIKE HPC/S IDEA OF SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE GFS
SOLUTION...ONLY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND LESS THAN HALF THE 3 INCH
QPF IN THE GFS.

MAIN ISSUE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT IS ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH...WITH LOTS OF CONVECTION COMPETING FOR IT.
WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT.  GIVEN SOME WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL
FLOW...DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR TONIGHT...BUT
A TORNADO OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.

THE BAND OF QPF SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY CLEARING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THAT WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...WITH STRONG FORCING
AND TREMENDOUS WIND FIELDS...A HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD
BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE REGION AS THE FRONTAL CONVECTION PUSHES
EASTWARD.  THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITH ANY STORMS THAT
CAN GET GOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED...AND CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL MENTIONED FOR TUESDAY.  THE 12Z MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...SO IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST
JUST AFTER 18Z AND WILL END IN THE EAST 00-03Z TUESDAY EVENING.
THERE SHOULD BE RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

FOR BREVITY WILL NOT TALK TOO MUCH ABOUT THE POST FRONTAL
FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO SAY THAT IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER...WITH
HIGHS ONLY THE 40S WEDNESDAY AND LOWS WELL INTO THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT...SO BASICALLY
WENT NEAR THE RUC 00Z TEMPERATURE FOR LOWS.  FAVORED THE MAV
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW WITH LITTLE INSOLATION EXPECTED.  THE
MET LOOKED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE MAV
MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FROM THURSDAY ON...WILL BE LOOKING AT A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST WITH
H50 N TO NW FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY WILL DOMINATE THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE
CHILLY SIDE...SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS.
AS THE HIGH EXPANDS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY IT WILL
WEAKEN AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

LATEST MODELS SWING TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE
REGION...THE FIRST ON FRIDAY AND THE SECOND ON SUNDAY. THE ONE ON
FRIDAY WILL PASS BY DRY WITH MOISTURE REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE GULF SHUT OFF. THE SECOND ONE WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAD POPS IN FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT HAVE PULLED THEM FOR NOW GIVEN DRY ENVIRONMENT
AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL HELP REINFORCE THE AT
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STUCK CLOSE TO MEX NUMBERS FOR HIGHS AND WENT
A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE LOWS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
448 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-152300-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...MURPHYSBORO...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...
SHAWNEETOWN...JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...
CAIRO...MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...
POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...
CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...
BENTON...MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...
MORGANFIELD...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...
OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...
MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...JACKSON...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...
DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...
NEW MADRID
448 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD USHERING IN MUCH WARMER
AND MORE MOIST AIR TO THE REGION TONIGHT. IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT.
INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER MEAGER...BUT WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGHOUT
THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD.
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT ENTERS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI JUST AFTER NOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. THE STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
TO THE EAST NORTHEAST...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA
BY 6 OR 7 PM.

ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER
AND RECENT RAINFALL MAY PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT HEATING AND
THEREFORE LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO THE STORMS.
CONFIDENCE IN A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS GREATEST IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT
WIND FIELDS IN THE NORTH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE
RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY.

IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT THE STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED OR
FORM INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE
A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WITH ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELL
STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ISOLATED STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS IF THEY FORM A LINE...BUT A FEW
TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS...WHICH
COULD CAUSE SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NEAR
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO EXIST AFTER THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

DRS