Hail in Illinois, June 13, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
145 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW
WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM FOR A PORTION OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. CAP LAPS DATA INDICATED
LIS OF -5 TO -7 ACROSS THIS AREA WHILE CAPES HAVE INCREASED INTO
THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. CAP WAS RAPIDLY ERODING ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI DURING THE PAST HOUR WITH ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT
REGION.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH MOISTURE FIELDS FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS ADVECT MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
WITH KS FORECAST BELOW 20 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z.

HIGHER 850 MOISTURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID TEEN C
DEWPOINTS. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT IS FORECAST BY
THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH AREA OF ADVECTION MOVING OFF RAPIDLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER 850 MB AIR WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE SIMILAR IN
FORECASTSING 10C TO 12C TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE UKMET AND NAM FORECAST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ADVECTION/TRANSPORT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY
MORNING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST
AREA.

H5 SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL SWING
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN MOVING SYSTEM
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA/OHIO VALLEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE 13/00Z RUN OF THE EUROPEAN AND THE
12/06Z RUN OF THE DGEX ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH A H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING WITH RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND CENTRAL U.S. WITH DEEP
TROF OR CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASATERN U.S. AND ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1141 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-141100-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-CLINTON IL-
COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-IRON-JEFFERSON-
JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-MADISON IL-MARION-
MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-
PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST CHARLES-
ST CLAIR IL-ST FRANCOIS-ST LOUIS-ST LOUIS CITY-STE GENEVIEVE-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
1141 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...
WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS ADDITIONAL THREATS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
FOR AREAS MAINLY IN NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD AND
INTENSIFYING.  THE STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...EVENTUALLY SPREADING THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BEFORE WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT.  THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE REGION.  WHILE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING...ENOUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER...NONE OF THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BYRD