Damaging Wind in Illinois, August 26, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
257 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CONCERN TODAY IS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM TRIGGERING THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THEN
THE PATTERN BECOMES BENIGN...WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS DIEING
OVER THE REGION AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN DOMAINATE FEATURE.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
STORMS IN THE LSX CWA CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD SE ILX CWA. MSAS
SURFACE DATA SHOWS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIEING E-W JUST SOUTH OF
CWA BORDER WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND MID 70S DPS IN WARM SECTOR.
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK IN IA. WITH CLOUD COVER AIRMASS
INSTABILITY IS NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WILL DROP POPS TO
CHANCE FOR TONIGHT IN ALL BUT SOUTHEAST. IN SOUTHEAST, WILL KEEP
LIKELY THIS EVENING. I LIKE THE GFS BETTER ON THE FRONTAL PROG THAN
THE NAM, HOWEVER THE QPF FORECAST IS OVERDONE.

FOR SATURDAY, WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THE CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST
BEHIND THE FRONT, FOR LINGERING LOWL LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ALL MODELS VERY SIMILAR FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
THE MAIN DOMAINATE FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK
FRONTS PUSHING IN AND DIEING OVER THE AREA. ONLY MINOR GRID CHANGES
WERE MADE.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

GOETSCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1111 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-271100-
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-
SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-DE WITT-CASS-MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-
CHRISTIAN-MACON-
1111 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TOWARD EARLY
EVENING AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-271100-
PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-
CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
1111 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING.
THE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TOWARD EARLY EVENING AND LAST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

HJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1058 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

ILZ066>068-071>073-262300-
CLAY-CRAWFORD-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
1058 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
747 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA...

IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS

CRAWFORD...

IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS

CLAY... EFFINGHAM...

IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS

JASPER... LAWRENCE... RICHLAND...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...EFFINGHAM...
FLORA AND LAWRENCEVILLE.

HJS