Strong Wind in Hawaii, March 14 to 15, 2005

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST MON MAR 14 2005

SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE STATE AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO WITHIN 350 NM NORTH OF THE STATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE LOW
MOVES OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.  COOL AIR HAS CIRCULATED SOUTHWARD FROM
THIS LOW PRODUCING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN
TUESDAY...THEN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SHOWER BAND ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY
CROSS KAUAI AND OAHU TONIGHT AND SWING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE TUESDAY. FOR THE BIG PICTURE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH MOVEMENT OF THE COMPLEX LOW AND IN CONSOLIDATION OF A LARGE
LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC THURSDAY THAT THEN PERSISTS
INTO THE WEEKEND. A FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ONTO THE ISLANDS
SATURDAY AND MAY STALL OVER MAUI COUNTY OR THE BIG ISLAND AS IT
WEAKENS. THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE STATE STEERING THAT
FRONT DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY IMPULSE TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD BUT
INSTEAD WEAKENS SLOWLY AS IT LIFTS OUT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FINALLY HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A RETURN OF TRADES
EARLY TUESDAY.

HIGH WIND WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR HIGHEST
SUMMITS OF VOLCANOES WHERE WINDS REMAIN VERY STRONG. SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 70 MPH ARE BEING REPORTED ON MAUNA KEA...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 50 MPH ON HALEAKALA. WIND WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE ALTHOUGH SOME VARIATION IN WIND STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED ACCORDING TO EXPOSURE TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO AFFECT OUR WATERS AND WILL LIKELY
PEAK WITH SURF NEAR 20 FT ON TUESDAY. THIS SWELL WILL DECREASE
WEDNESDAY. THE PERIODS OF THIS SWELL ARE SHORTER THAN THE USUAL
LARGE SWELLS THAT WE RECEIVE...AND WITH THE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS...OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DISORGANIZED AND
CHOPPY. THERE IS SOME THREAT OF WAVES RUNNING UP ON EXPOSED BEACHES
BUT HIGH TIDE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT IS BELOW 2 FEET.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE HALEAKALA SUMMIT ON MAUI.
WIND ADVISORY FOR REMAINDER OF THE STATE.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU
AND MOLOKAI...AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE WEST FACING SHORES ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS...KAUAI WINDWARD
WATERS...KAUAI CHANNEL...OAHU WINDWARD WATERS...KAIWI CHANNEL AND
MAUI WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

HOAG