High Surf in Hawaii, January 29 to 31, 2005

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SAT JAN 29 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHEARLINE...THE TRAILING END OF A FRONTAL BAND...WILL MOVE OVER
KAUAI THIS MORNING AND STALL...BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO KAUAI
AND OAHU TODAY. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN TOMORROW AS THE SHEARLINE
WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTH. A STRONG FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI TUESDAY
MORNING AND PUSH DOWN TO THE BIG ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
COOL...DRY...NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WEATHER IS RATHER QUIET ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS THAT WAS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE BIG ISLAND MUCH OF THE NIGHT WEAKENED RAPIDLY AFTER 2 AM.
THERE ARE STILL LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER WATER SOUTH AND WEST OF OAHU BUT
LAND AREAS ARE MOSTLY DRY. THAT IS LIKELY TO CHANGE SOON.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND
30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE BAND HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARDS
THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 13 MPH. THIS MOVEMENT MAY SLOW A BIT...BUT THE
BAND IS STILL LIKELY TO REACH KAUAI BY DAYBREAK. THE COMPUTER MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN STALLING THE BAND OVER KAUAI. THE CLOUDS
ALONG THE SHEARLINE MAY NOT MOVE EAST OF THE KAUAI CHANNEL. A CLOUD
AREA SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
SHEARLINE AND BRING SOME SHOWERS TO OAHU...AND SOME SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND...BUT MAUI COUNTY
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG.

THE CLOUD BAND OVER KAUAI WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
BY SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS SHIFTS TO SOUTHEAST. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE VEERING AS A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE TOWARDS THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS75 HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI TUESDAY MORNING AND
PUSH DOWN PAST THE BIG ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GOOD DYNAMICS
AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAKE IT LOOK AS IF THE FRONT WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE. IF THE GFS FORECAST HOLDS UP...THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE HEAVY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS OR HAIL.

IF THE GFS MODEL PROVES CORRECT...COOL...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT IS TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO
PLACE TOO MUCH FAITH IN.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHWEST SWELL REACHED THE ISLANDS LAST EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SURF ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE
HIGH SURF MESSAGES AND OAHU SURF FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA THROUGH TODAY.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU...
KAUAI...OAHU AND MOLOKAI.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.
&&

DONALDSON