Winter Weather in Georgia, December 15, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
952 PM EST WED DEC 14 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
PRECIP ONSET HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PRECIPITATION ENTERING W GA ATTM. THIS AREA IS
MOVING THIS WAY FAIRLY QUICKLY...SO STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE WRN SECTIONS BY 06Z...THEN ALL CWFA BY 09Z. NEXT QUESTION
IS PRECIP TYPE. 00Z GSO RAOB HAD WET BULBS ALL BELOW ZERO WITH
JUST A SMALL WARM NOSE OF 1C. FFC HAD DEEP WARM NOSE WITH 6C MAX.
THINK WARM NOSE WILL RESEMBLE FFC WHEN BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
ARRIVE...BUT WITH THAT COLD GSO RAOB...THERE WILL BE MORE SNOW AND
SLEET AT ONSET OVER THE NRN TIER. THAT SAID...FREEZING RAIN WILL
STILL BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN THE WARM NOSE AND OBSERVED WET BULBS
BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL CWFA XCPT EXTREME SW.

WARNINGS LOOK WELL PLACED AS THOSE LOCATIONS HAVE THE COLDEST LOW
LEVEL AIR. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES NOT IN THE
ADVISORY. LAPS SOUNDINGS OVER THE SW MTNS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WARM
NOSE ALREADY IN PLACE WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA WHERE WET BULB BELOW
ZERO. WITH SFC WET BULBS BELOW ZERO...DO EXPECT A MIX EARLY...BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS WARMING WITH ONLY SPOTTY GLAZING. LATEST NAM
ALSO SHOWS SFC WET BULBS WARMING QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WILL
ISSUE SPS FOR THESE AREAS...BUT NO ADVISORY.

ADVISORY AREAS STILL LOOK GOOD...AS LATEST NAM AGREES WITH PREVIOUS
MDL RUNS WITH WET BULBS QUICKLY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 12Z.
CANNOT RULE OUT A QUARTER INCH ICE ACCRETION IN THE COUNTIES
IMMEDIATELY BORDERING THE WARNING COUNTIES...BUT EVIDENCE NOT
STRONG ENUF TO ENLARGE WARNING AREA. WILL BRIEF MID SHIFT TO WATCH
TRENDS AND UPGRADE ON AN AS NEEDED BASIS.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 319 PM EST WED DEC 14 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
QUITE A FEW FACTORS IN TODAY/S MODELS AND WITH THE CURRENT
ATMOSPHERIC TRENDS ARE FAVORING AN ICE STORM...AND WILL UPGRADE ALL
WATCHES TO ICE STORM WARNINGS WITH THIS PACKAGE...AND ISSUE A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NON-MTN ZONES.
WILL NOT GO WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST MTNS AS THEY
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF THE
HEAVIER PCPN PER THE USUAL COLD AIR DAMMING CLIMATOLOGY.

WEDGE RIDGE HAS VERIFIED COLDER AND DRIER THAN EXPECTED. DWPTS
ATTM ARE IN THE MID TEENS OVER THE UPSTATE AND AROUND 10 DEG F IN
THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. OBSERVED WET BULB FREEZING SFC TEMPS AT
18 UTC WERE A GOOD 3 DEG F COLDER THAN THAN ON THE 12 UTC NAM.
WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT PCPN AROUND TDA...TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT RISEN OUT OF MID 30S FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AND UPPER 20S
MTNS. EVEN MORE OMINOUSLY...TODAY/S GFS AND NAM HAVE A BETTER
CONNECTION WITH THE PARENT HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND CAD COMING
DOWN THE LEE SLOPES THU MORNING...WHICH MEANS BETTER MAINTENANCE
FOR THE WEDGE RIDGE DURING THE PERIOD OF HEAVIER PCPN.

SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND JET OVER SRN TX HAS ALSO VERIFIED QUITE
STRONG...WITH CONVECTION BLOSSOMING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE OVER NE
TX AND LA. THE GFS HAS CAPTURED THIS TREND QUITE WELL THE PAST FEW
RUNS...WITH TDA/S 12 UTC RUN TAKING A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED POT
VORT MAX INTO THE MIDLANDS TOMORROW. THIS POT VORT MAX INDUCES A
STRONGER SFC LOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ON THE GFS...AND AIDES IN VERY
STRONG FORCING THAT LIFTS OVER THE COLD AIR LATE TNGT AND THE BETTER
PART OF THU. THE 12 UTC NAM HAS NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

THE UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE QPF AMOUNTS WELL OVER AN
INCH ACROSS THE HEART OF THE COLD AIR DAMMING REGION. COUPLE A
COLDER AND BETTER MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH HEAVIER PCPN
RATES AND THE ICE STORM IS LOOKING MUCH MORE LIKELY AND POTENTIALLY
QUITE DAMAGING.

ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE MODELS ARE TAKING THE SFC LOW TOO FAR INTO
THE COLD AIR. IF THE LOW VERIFIES FARTHER SOUTH...AND IF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL DOESN/T BRING DOWN TOO MUCH WARM AIR...THEN DAMAGING ICE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD HAPPEN FARTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING IN THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE STILL LOOKING DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER FLOW INITIALLY ZONAL IN MEDIUM RANGE...WITH FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVING A SURFACE WAVE ALONG FRONT IN GULF SAT NIGHT AND
SUN...TO SOUTH OF A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS SE STATES. BEST MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS S TIER OF AREA. THICKNESS SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO FAVOR
SNOW N TIER AND RAIN S...WITH RAPID TRANSITION ALONG I-85. RAPID
DRYING BEHIND SYSTEM PERSISTS UNTIL TUE WHEN UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES UPSTREAM AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM W. THIS SYSTEM LACKS MOISTURE OF PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WARRANTING
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN
ALL SNOW EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH COLD
SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE...THOUGH DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE LOW IN
PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER WITH SHORTWAVES.

AVIATION...
SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN CAROLINA TERMINALS...EXCEPTION KAND. TEMPERATURES HAVE
STRUGGLED TO WARM TODAY...WITH WET BULB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE CWA BETWEEN
6-9Z TONIGHT. WILL FORECAST THE MAIN P-TYPE AS FZRA WITH PL MIXING
IN AT KAVL AND KHKY IN THE EARLY AM. AT OR BEYOND 10Z TONIGHT ANY
TERMINAL COULD SEE CEILINGS DETERIORATE TO LIFR. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
KAND...KGMU...KGSP...AND KCLT MAY WARM ABOVE FREEZING AROUND
16Z...RESULTING IN RA AS THE P-TYPE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...ICE STORM WARNING FOR GAZ010-017-018 UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY.
  ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR GAZ026-028-029 UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY.
NC...ICE STORM WARNING FOR NCZ033>037-049-050-053>057-064>070 UNTIL
     6 PM THURSDAY.
  ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR NCZ071-072-082 UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY.
SC...ICE STORM WARNING FOR SCZ001>008 UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY.
  ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SCZ009>014-019 UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
644 PM EST WED DEC 14 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-151200-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
644 PM EST WED DEC 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN ICE STORM WARNING AND FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PLEASE SEE CAEWSWGSP FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE WARNING AND ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY.
AGAIN...PLEASE SEE CAEWSWGSP FOR DETAILS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY...THOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY
TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1005 PM EST WED DEC 14 2005

NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062-063-151115-
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA...
FRANKLIN
1005 PM EST WED DEC 14 2005

...A BRIEF WINTRY MIXTURE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...

MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...A
BRIEF MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH RAIN. SHELTERED
VALLEYS COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOR LOCATIONS
WHERE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW...FREEZING.

ANY WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET...SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN ARE
FORECAST TO BE LIGHT...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON TRAVEL OR ON TREES
AND POWER LINES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM GRAHAM
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO MADISON...AND INCLUDING MACON AND JACKSON
COUNTIES...ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

NO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH ICE STORM WARNINGS EXIST FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND FOR THE INTERIOR FRENCH BROAD VALLEY FROM THE
HEADWATERS NEAR CATHEYS CREEK AND ROSMAN TO ASHEVILLE. MOTORISTS
WITH TRAVEL PLANS THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS IN THE THURSDAY PREDAWN
SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION...SHOULD POCKETS OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN BE ENCOUNTERED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION OR
CABLE TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

BURRUS