Ice Storm in Georgia, December 15, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
547 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
WITH COLD WET BULB TEMPS AND RAIN CONTINUING...GOING TO EXPAND
ICE STORM WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE ADVISORY AREA DUE TO
REPORTS OF UP TO 0.2 INCHES ICE VCNTY CHARLOTTE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 357 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
BASED ON EMERGENCY PERSONNEL AND SPOTTER REPORTS OF ACCUMULATIONS
OVER 1/8 INCH...WITH A COUPLE TREES DAMAGED...HAVE EXPANDED ICE
WARNING AREA TO INCLUDE THE REST OF OUR GA COUNTIES AND MOST OF
UPSTATE SC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 238 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG N GULF STATES AS DEEP MOISTURE
SURGES NE OVER AREA. WET BULBS ARE PLENTY COLD AND AS PRECIP
FELL THROUGH WEDGE OF DRY AIR...SFC TEMPS HAVE DROPPED BELOW
FREEZING. WET BULBS INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING OVER W MTNS AROUND
DAYBREAK..THEN ALONG S FRINGE BY MID MORNING. THEN AS WARM NOSE
INCREASES WITH WAA AND WEDGE ERODES...EXPECT SFC TEMPS TO
INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING FROM SW TO NE AND ALONG WEDGE BOUNDARY.
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING WITH NAM BEING FASTER ERODING THE WEDGE
BUT WITH HPC SUPPORT...AN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD DOME...HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS TIMING. A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE SW ATTM...BUT RAIN WILL FILL BACK IN LATER
THIS MORNING AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS SW OF HERE AND TRACKS NE. HAVE
MADE A NUMBER OF SMALL ADJUSTMENTS BUT WILL STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH TODAY. RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE NE THIS EVE
WITH SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW LINGERING OVER THE TN BORDER MTNS INTO
FRI MORNING. DRY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRI AND SAT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER FLOW INITIALLY ZONAL IN MEDIUM RANGE...WITH FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE DRIVING A SURFACE WAVE ALONG FRONT IN GULF SAT NIGHT AND
SUN...TO SOUTH OF A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS SE STATES. BEST MOISTURE
MOVES ACROSS S TIER OF AREA. THICKNESS SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO FAVOR
SNOW N TIER AND RAIN S...WITH RAPID TRANSISITION ALONG I-85. RAPID
DRYING BEHIN SSYTEM PERSISTS UNTIL TUE WHEN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES
UPSTREAM AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM W. THIS
SYSTEM LACKS MOISTURE OF PREVIOUS SYSTEM...WARRNATING ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS...BUT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ALL SNOW EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH COLD SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE...THOUGH DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE LOW IN PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER
WITH SHORTWAVES.

AVIATION...
PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN...ADVERTISED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AT THE ONSET FOR KAVL. MODEL
OUTPUT STATISTICS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES...LIFR AT
TIMES. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN FROM
KAND NORTHWARD FROM 12Z TO 16Z...WITH RAIN DOMINATING ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z. THE OUTLOOK PERIOD FEATURES VCSH AT KGSP/KCLT FOR ANY
REMNANT SHOWERS BUT A RAPID RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ADVERTISED AT
ALL LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...ICE STORM WARNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 UNTIL 6 PM
     THURSDAY.
NC...ICE STORM WARNING FOR NCZ033>037-049-050-053>057-064>072-082
     UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY.
SC...ICE STORM WARNING FOR SCZ001>014-019 UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
559 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-161100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
559 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FAR NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. SEE
CAEWSWGSP FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

RB