Hail in Georgia, April 22, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1024 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
MCS OVER ERN TN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK E-SE THROUGH THE AFTN HRS
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT. 1200 UTC OHX SOUNDING
WAS INTERESTING IN THAT IT HAD A DEEP LAYER OF 30-40KT WNDS BLO H5.
WNDS FROM H5 AND UP WERE LIGHTER. LAPSE RATES ON THE SOUNDING WERE
QUITE STEEP FROM THE SFC TO 600 MB...BUT MORE MOIST ADIABATIC
ABOVE THAT. CAPE VALUES WERE RUNNING AROUND 1500 J/JG FOR A DWPT
OF 60 AND A TEMP OF 74. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CAN BE SEEN WORKING
INTO WRN TN ATTM ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS THE DRY SLOT KICKS
INTO THIS AIRMASS...EXPECT THE MCS TO OUR WEST TO CONTINUE AND
PERHAPS EVEN INTENSITY A LITTLE. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL AHEAD OF THE MCS...FOLLOWING FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 0600
ETA/S H7 OMEGA FIELD AS A GUIDE. SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL REPORTS WL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS MCS...PARTICULARLY AS IT
MOVES EAST OF THE MTNS INTO AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SUN THROUGH THE
MORNING HRS. WL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SOME SEVERE
STORMS IN THE GRIDS AND ZONES. HOPEFULLY WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WL
MIX OUT AS ADVERTISED BY THE ETA. IF IT LINGERS...THE LLVL TURNING
COUPLED WITH THE STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES AND DENSE CAPE COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED THREAT OF BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADOES IMMEDIATELY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 350 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY TO LEAVE THE AREA IN AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE EXPECTED AFTER
18Z...AND THEN 850 TO 500 MB DPVA ARRIVES TOWARD 00Z AS THE MIDWEST
CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO OPEN AND PHASE IN. SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEGIN THE
DAY IN THE 50S...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE EXPECTED AS SW FLOW
IMPROVES. WARM SECTOR CONVECTION SHOULD THUS INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS CAPES REACH 1000+ J/KG WITH LI OF MINUS 2 OR BETTER. WET BULB
ZERO OF 9 KFT AGL ALONG WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR PRODUCING 15 DEGREE K
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE LAPSE SUPPORTS POSSIBLE HAIL/WIND
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS THEN LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SHEAR VALUES INCREASING AS 40 KT 850 MB JET ARRIVES BY
MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH DIMINISHING SFC BASED INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE
MODE MAY SHIFT FROM WIND AND HAIL THREAT THIS AFTN TO SHALLOW
SHEARED CONVECTION WITH LINEAR FEATURES AND ISOLD TORNADO THREAT
LATER THIS EVENING.

FROPA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS
GRADUALLY DROPPING TO 4000 FT MSL BY NOON SATURDAY...AND DIPPING
INTO THE LOWER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST
PERIOD OF NW FLOW MOISTURE SHOULD YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL FROM PM SAT THROUGH AM SUNDAY...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES LIKELY
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE
ACCUMULATIONS HARD TO COME BY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. WINDS WILL
LIKELY GUST INTO THE 40S DURING THE BEST COLD ADVECTION...AND
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. WILL ISSUE SPS TO
ADDRESS THE VARIETY OF WINTER WX CONCERNS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SAME ONTARIO VORTEX THAT IS PRODUCING THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT
RANGE. MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT DIGGING SYSTEM
IS SLATED MAINLY FOR TUESDAY...BUT TIMING CONCERNS WILL REQUIRE
STRETCHING CHC POPS INTO WED PER PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY REBOUND THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AS A SOUTHEAST RIDGE
RECOVERS.

AVIATION...
PERIODS OF IFR FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KAVL UNTIL SUNRISE.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK EAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT. AS THE DEEPENING LOW APPROACHES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. BY MID
MORNING...ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE A DECENT SW WIND (SOUTH AT
KAVL). WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS THE MIXING HEIGHT INCREASES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DWPTS IN THE
MID 50S OR BETTER. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 900-1500 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN. ENOUGH FORCING TO
TRIGGER DEEP CONVECTION MAY ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS ONE IN A SERIES
OF VORTS PASS OVER THE REGION. WILL HANDLE WITH A LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TEMPO FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS. ANOTHER
WAVE OF TS IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AFTER 0Z SAT.
AT THIS POINT...WILL LIMIT MENTION OF TS AFTER 0Z SAT TO KAND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
555 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-240955-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
555 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO USHER IN VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH FREEZING LOWS LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS...AND THE
GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FROM RABUN COUNTY TO
NORTHERN GREENVILLE COUNTY. FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE WIND AND
FREEZE THREAT...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST URGENT WEATHER
MESSAGE...NPWGSP...FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG.

THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO PUSH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE TODAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH 1 TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...SEE
THE LATEST URGENT WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...WSWGSP...FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS MAY BE AT RISK AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES THEN RECOVER THROUGH MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER STRONG STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GERAPETRITIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1133 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-SCZ001-002-004-005-
221630-
FRANKLIN GA-GRAHAM NC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
HABERSHAM GA-HAYWOOD NC-MACON NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-RABUN GA-
SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-STEPHENS GA-SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-
1133 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA
AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

AT 1130 AM EDT...WEATHER RADAR SHOWED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
RAPIDLY WEST OF CLAYTON GEORGIA.  THESE STORMS LIKELY ALREADY HAVE
HAIL REACHING THE SURFACE.  WIDESPREAD STORMS WERE ABOUT TO MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AND DEVELOPING ACTIVITY WILL
SOON MOVE INTO OCONEE COUNTY SOUTH CAROLINA.

SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOMING SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.  LISTEN TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR
FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS.

JONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1150 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     HAIL             10 W CLAYTON            34.88N 83.58W
04/22/2005  0.50 INCH        RABUN              GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO MARBLE HAIL FELL FOR SEVERAL MINUTES

&&

JONES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1204 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-230003-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
1204 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2005

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO LINES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY AFFECT THE
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
WESTERN UPSTATE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...THEY WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN UPSTATE AND THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS THIS FIRST ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. THIS SECOND LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SECOND BATCH...AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. DISPATCHERS SHOULD ENSURE COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION. STAY TUNED TO
ALL HAZARDS NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION OR SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION OR SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

MCAVOY