Lightning Strike in Florida, October 5, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
249 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...A WET PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR CWA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NE GULF OF MEXICO AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ADVECTS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN
NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AS BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS HAVE DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER
OFF SOME AROUND SUNSET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SECOND
LOW/VORT MAX NEAR THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND 12Z
MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM DEVELOP A SFC LOW OVER OR JUST N OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE IT SLOWLY N-NE OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES INDICATE AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND EXTREME W CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW...AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SPREAD N ACROSS THE SE
GULF AND APPROACH THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU. BIGGEST THREAT
OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL LIKELY COMMENCE EARLY THU
AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF FRI AS THE SFC LOW MOVES N OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND THE UPPER VORT MAX LOW MOVES NE ACROSS THE CWA. AS
A RESULT...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AND MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED ON THURSDAY TO INCLUDE FRI NIGHT OR EVEN
SATURDAY DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE. THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND SHOT OF
PRECIP LATE FRI NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT E.

.EXTENDED...FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWN THE PENINSULA ON SAT AND
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN.
DRIER AIR N OF THE TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO CWA ON SUN...WITH
POPS LOWERING TO CHANCE CATEGORY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES OVER.

&&

.MARINE...SCEC CONDITIONS WILL END LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR PALM
BEACH WATERS AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT OVER BOTH ATLC AND GULF WATERS
THROUGH SAT...THEN SHIFT TO NORTH AND REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ON SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-
     FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

52/59

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
938 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2005

FLZ063-066>075-061345-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
938 AM EDT WED OCT 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PENINSULA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST.
THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE LIGHTNING.

FLOODING: LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS. HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT
COULD LEAD TO A GREATER RISK OF FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.