Storm Surge in Florida, March 8, 2005

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
610 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

UPDATE...EARLY REPORTS FROM MORNING SOUNDING ARE SHOWING WINDS OF
48KT AT 1000FT. BASED ON THIS AND AIRCRAFT REPORTS IN THE LAST
HOUR...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THRU 6 PM.
ATTM...MOST OF THE WIND IS STAYING JUST OFF THE SURFACE WITH OBS
SHOWING GENERALLY SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
KNOTS. GIVEN THE POTENIAL FOR SOME OF THESE HIGHER WINDS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WILL ISSUE WIND
ADV.

PREV DISC BELOW:
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...CURRENTLY MONITORING LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
MOVING THRU OUR NORTH FA...AND TOR WATCH #47 STILL IN EFFECT FOR
LEVY CO UNTIL 4 AM. LOCAL SFC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS RELATIVE STABILITY
OF THE LOLVL AIRMASS OVER MOST OF OUR FA. HOWEVER GIVEN DEEP LAYER
WIND FIELD AND DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM...TSTMS WILL NEED TO BE
CAREFULLY WATCHED.  NAM/GFS AGREE LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND ASSOC
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU OUR FA FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY...EXITING THE TAMPA
BAY VICINITY BEFORE NOON...THEN SOUTH OF FMY BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM N TO S LATER TODAY AS
A DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SUB TROP JET WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVER US AS ANOTHER MIDLVL SHORT WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...SO THE FRONT
SHOULD STALL JUST OFF OF SOUTH FL TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AGAIN OVER OUR AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND WED...AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR WED AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INTERACTION WITH EXISTING STALLED BOUNDARY SUGGESTS HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FA WED AND WED NIGHT. THE TROF WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND OFF THE EAST COAST ON THU...THUS
DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAY THU.

TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE...WITH
CHILLY READINGS TONIGHT GIVEN COOLER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. LATEST
GUID TRENDING UP FOR TONIGHT LOWS...PROBABLY A RESULT OF CLOUDS
RETURNING LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECTING LOWS TONIGHT FROM UPR
30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH...MID-UPR 40S CENTRAL (TPA VICINITY)...AND
LOW 50S SOUTH NEAR FMY. CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
ON WED...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NORTH TO UPR 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-MON)...FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT EARLY IN THE EVENING...TAKING ANY CHANCES OF
PCPN WITH IT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
FRI. THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL START
TO SHIFT EASTWARD. AS IT DOES...A VORTMAX MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FROM FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH
ISOLATED POPS OF 10 PERCENT ALONG WITH A SURGE OF WINDS. THESE DEPART
DURING SAT AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF MOVES EAST...PASSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT RIDGING BACK OVER SOUTH FL MON. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE END OF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...LOCALLY TIGHT PGRAD OVER THE EASTERN GULF ASSOC WITH
FRONTAL SYSTM MVG THRU THE REGION ATTM HAS CAUSED QUITE A BUILD UP
IN SEAS. 05Z OB FROM 42036 SHOWING NEARLY 10 FT SEAS WITH S-SSW
WINDS 25G31KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MUCH OF THIS WIND AND WAVE ENERGY
WILL AFFECT OUR WATERS TODAY AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES SOUTH AND
EAST. EXPECTING SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND GUSTY EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO NW AT SAME SPEEDS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...SCA WILL BE POSTED FOR ALL OUR WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE ONSHORE WAVE ENERGY...
EXPECTING ROUGH WAVE ACTION AND DANGEROUS RIPS CURRENTS ALONG AREA
BEACHES TODAY. WILL ISSUE HIGH SURF ADV FOR TODAY THRU THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KT THIS EVENING.
LOW CONFIDENCE ATTM WITH NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THRU
THE WATERS ON THU...HOWEVER GFS PROGS SUGGEST ANOTHER PERIOD OF
INCREASED WINDS AND SEA LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WX
CONCERNS TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THRU...HOWEVER RH SHOULD STAY
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.  ALTHO RHS MAY DROP TO AROUND 40 OR SO
MIDDAY WED...THE RETURN OF CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS...ESP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 70 45 62 48 / 70 00 30 50
FMY 75 50 65 52 / 70 00 40 60
GIF 73 45 62 48 / 70 00 30 50
SRQ 69 45 62 47 / 70 00 30 50
BKV 69 37 59 43 / 60 00 20 30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...TORNADO WATCH #47 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM FOR LEVY COUNTY.
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT ALL TBW WATERS.
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALONG THE COAST FROM SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTH TO
    ENGLEWOOD.
...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FOR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....RKR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
522 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-082100-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
522 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 6 TO 10 FEET OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WAVE ENERGY WILL
IMPACT THE BEACHES IN THE FORM OF ROUGH SURF...LARGE BREAKING
WAVES...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF MAY
REACH 8 TO 10 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON...THUS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR BEACHES FROM SUWANNEE RIVER SOUTH TO ENGLEWOOD...AND
BEACH GOERS ARE ADVISED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. THE ROUGH SURF AND
LARGE BREAKING WAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE
WIND SUBSIDES.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE
ROUGH TODAY. WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SHORT PERIOD WAVES OF 7 TO
10 FEET WILL RESULT IN ROUGH CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS...AND
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES AND ANY ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
110 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

FLZ039-080715-
LEVY-
110 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LEVY COUNTY UNTIL 215 AM...
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH...WILL AFFECT CHIEFLAND...
OTTER CREEK AND BRONSON...UNTIL 215 AM EST. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 TO
50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE
LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

NP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
218 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

FLZ039-080815-
LEVY-
218 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT LEVY COUNTY UNTIL
315 AM...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH...WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
LEVY COUNTY...UNTIL 315 AM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY
CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND
WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

NP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
334 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

FLZ039-080930-
LEVY-
334 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT LEVY COUNTY THROUGH
430 AM...
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH...WILL AFFECT MUCH OF LEVY
COUNTY...INCLUDING BRONSON AND WILLISTON...UNTIL 430 AM EST. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS EXPECTED. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

NP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
501 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

FLZ039-042-043-081115-
CITRUS-LEVY-SUMTER-
501 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN LEVY...CITRUS...AND
SUMTER COUNTIES THROUGH 615 AM...
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50
MPH...ARE MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH...AND WILL AFFECT HOMOSASSA
SPRINGS...CRYSTAL RIVER...BEVERLY HILLS AND INVERNESS...UNTIL 615 AM
EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH MAY CAUSE LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND WIRES IS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA
SIZE HAIL. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

NP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
702 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

FLZ043-052-081225-
POLK-SUMTER-
702 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SUMTER AND NORTHERN
POLK COUNTIES...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH...WILL AFFECT THE GREEN
SWAMP AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF POLK COUNTY...UNTIL 725 AM EST. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.

JCM