Tropical Storm in Florida, June 9 to 11, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
358 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...DEP #1 WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...AS
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WAS KEEPING THE
WINDS IN A EASTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE CWA...AND ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO MOVE
ON SHORE ALONG THE EAST COAST BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS.

THE DEPRESSION  #1 IS STILL FORECASTED BY THE NHC TO STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL
STORM ARLENE BY THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE STORM IS THEN FORECAST BY THE NHC TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY WHILE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW AND THE HIGH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING THE WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVEN. THE EAST COAST AREAS COULD SEE THE WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR WIND ADV CONDITIONS BY THIS EVENING. BUT AT THIS
TIME WILL NOT ISSUE A WND ADV AND LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK AT THIS.

THERE WILL ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE CWA
STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS DEPRESSION
1 MOVES BY TO THE WEST OF CWA PUTTING THE AREA IN A CONVERGENCE
SET UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...PLAN ON
NOT ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST AND INTERIOR AREAS OF
THE CWA AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PATH OF DEPRESSION 1 ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. SO WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK AT THIS SITUATION WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE CWA FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

THE WEST COAST AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SEE MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...DUE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND
KEEPING THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST AND ALLOWING
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD ALSO HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THEM...AND THIS AREA HAS
SEEN BETWEEN 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 6 TO 8 INCHES SINCE JUNE
1. SO PLAN ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...AT THIS TIME NHC IS FORECASTING DEPRESSION 1
TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS
WEEKEND TAKING THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO GET BACK TO THE SUMMER TIME PATTERN
WITH MAINLY NIGHT TIME AND MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST
COAST...AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...THE WINDS WILL BE REMAIN MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVER
THE CWA BUT WILL INCREASE TO SCA CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING...DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING OVER THE
CWA. THE WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN AT THESE SPEEDS THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY COMING DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FEET BY TONIGHT IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND UP TO 6 TO 8 FEET WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GULF WATERS.
THE SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN AT THESE HEIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY COMING DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  79  83  79 /  50  50  70  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  80  83  80 /  50  50  70  50
MIAMI            87  79  84  79 /  50  50  70  50
NAPLES           91  76  86  76 /  70  70  90  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SCA FOR ALL OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY.
GM...SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
&&

BAXTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
546 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005

FLZ063-066>075-100916-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
516 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA, LAKE
OKEECHOBEE, AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR COLLIER COUNTY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. IN BETWEEN, OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA, THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TODAY.

IN ADDITION, THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ON THE WAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS A RESULT,
AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE MIAMI-DADE,
BROWARD, AND PALM BEACH COAST LINES DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND THE INTERIOR
OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

FLOODING: THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, ESPECIALLY COLLIER COUNTY WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL YESTERDAY. MORE RAIN IS ON THE WAY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

WAVES: SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FEET OVER ATLANTIC WATERS FROM MIAMI-
DADE TO PALM BEACH COUNTY. SEAS BUILDING ALSO OVER GULF WATERS BEYOND
20 NM OFF COLLIER COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY, PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A RESULT. SOME IMPROVEMENT STARTING THIS WEEKEND AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.