Damaging Wind and Heavy Rain in Florida, June 11, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
607 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2005

.UPDATE...CANCELLED FLOOD WATCH AND UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE THAT
MENTION. STILL A STORM CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN NORTH OF ALLIGATOR
ALLEY...BUT AS THE NAME OF THE HIGHWAY ALLUDES TO...THE EVERGLADES
CAN HANDLE THE LINGERING RAIN. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&
RRH

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS TROPICAL STORM ARLENE CONTINUED A
NORTHWARD TREK TOWARD THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...A MAJOR RAIN BAND WAS BRUSHING ALONG THE SE FLA COAST
AFFECTING MAINLY THE NE BROWARD AND ALL PALM BEACH COUNTY METRO
AREAS. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE S FLA PENINSULA ...ALLOWED CONVECTION...AND IN TURN...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS TO OCCUR. THE FLOOD WATCH...DUE TO THE EXTREME SATURATED
S FLA CONDITIONS... WILL GO THROUGH 800 PM THIS EVENING.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUED TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD OVER S
FLA TONIGHT AS ARLENE CONTINUES N INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. IN THE
WAKE OF ARLENE...HIGH PRES SURFACE/ALOFT OFF OF THE MID ATLC COAST
BUILDS SW OVER THE SE U.S./N FLA...PULLING DRIER AIR OVER THE
PENINSULA. THIS IS A TREND ALL MODELS DEPICT BUT WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE HIGHER POPS OF MAV VERSUS MET. REASON IS THE LARGE 500 MB
LOW N OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THAT EXTENDS SW INTO THE E CARIB. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TO OVER THE S BAHAMAS AND E
CUBA BY TUE. THIS MAY DEFLECT SOME OF THE DRIER AIR N OF S FLA.
POPS THOUGH WILL BE LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS (IF MODELS
REALLY RIGHT AND DRY AIR IS NOT DEFLECTED...COULD BE REALLY DRIER
MON AND TUE). WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE BUILDING W...ALONG WITH
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE E AS WELL...LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
BECOMES EASTERLY TONIGHT...DEEPENS SUN AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUE.
THUS...LATE/EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION E COAST AND AFTERNOON/EVE
ACTIVITY INTERIOR AND W.

.EXTENDED PERIOD...WED THROUGH SAT...A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER E U.S. SHIFTS WINDS TO WESTERLY DUE TO THE TROUGH AND THE UPPER
LOW/POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW MOVING NE FROM THE CENTRAL CARIB. POPS
/TEMPS MORE NEAR CLIMO THIS PERIOD WITH POPS HIGHER INTERIOR AND E
DUE TO THE WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...EXERCISE CAUTION ATLC WATERS...MAINLY DUE TO
SEAS...THROUGH MID EVENING...THEN NO HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THU. WINDS
EASTERLY THROUGH WED...BECOMING NW TO W THU. INITIALLY AROUND 15
KNOTS ATLC WATERS TONIGHT...THEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS AS NO SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  77  89 / 30  50  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  78  88 / 30  50  30  40
MIAMI            76  87  77  90 / 30  50  30  40
NAPLES           76  89  75  91 / 30  60  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
650 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005

FLZ063-066>075-122300-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
650 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA, LAKE
OKEECHOBEE, AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...

RIP CURRENTS: THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS HIGH AT THE
BEACHES OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. THIS INCLUDES THE BEACHES OF MIAMI-
DADE, BROWARD, AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. STRONG RIP CURRENTS REMAIN
LIKELY.

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
INTERIOR RURAL SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE EVENING, BUT WITH A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, A HEAVY SHOWER
OR STORM IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LESSEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
HOWEVER SOME REDUCED RISK WILL STILL BE PRESENT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.

HANDEL