Heavy Rain in Florida, February 27, 2005

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
505 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

.UPDATE...DESPITE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND A TONGUE OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION...LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED AROUND TO A
UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE. ANY FURTHER STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTN WILL STILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...
BUT THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES HAS DIMINISHED. THUS TORNADO WATCH 41
IS DISCONTINUED FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS WITH UPDATED W/W/A SECTION...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...TOR WATCH #41 CONTINUES OVER ALL OF THE
AREA EXCEPT LEVY COUNTY UNTIL 6PM. CONVECTION STARTING TO GET BETTER
DEVELOPED WITH A BAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS...WNW INTO
MANATEE...NW HARDEE...SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH AND SOUTHERN POLK
COUNTIES. SOME OF THESE CELLS HAVE ROTATION...WITH THE BEST ROTATION
SEEN SO FAR TODAY OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFFSHORE OF
SARASOTA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. THE LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY 60-70 MILES
SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE THIS EVENING...PULLING DRIER AIR OVER THE
AREA AND PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY...WITH
SKIES AND MOISTURE CONTINUING TO CLEAR OUT. TEMPS TO CONTINUE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
HIGHS MONDAY TO BE NEAR NORMAL MOST PLACES AS THE COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS TO BE NEAR TO A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SUN)...OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF MOVING
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ARE STILL HAVING SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT CONFLICTS WITH THE SYSTEM
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
RAIN THESE DAYS AND WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST AS IS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR AND DRY WEATHER OTHER DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...TOR WATCH #41 CONTINUES THROUGH 6PM OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND THE SCA CONTINUES TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS TODAY
AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME
TOMORROW...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST A CAUTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE AFTER THAT THROUGH WED EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS TO PICK UP
AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN
GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD...WITH POSSIBLE ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINAL RH
VALUES/DURATIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND INTERIOR COUNTIES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND
POSSIBLY ISSUE A WATCH WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 62 71 53 65 / 30 10 00 00
FMY 65 76 56 71 / 30 10 00 00
GIF 62 74 52 67 / 30 10 00 00
SRQ 63 72 55 66 / 30 10 00 00
BKV 58 71 45 65 / 30 10 00 00

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

&&

SHORT TERM...COLSON
LONG TERM....CLOSE
UPDATE...SHARP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
516 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-271630-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
516 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO
NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY EVENING...THEN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...HELPING TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL
HINGE UPON THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING WE GET LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING RAINS MAY HELP TO LIMIT THIS HEATING...
RESULTING IN A LOWER CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT TODAY...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SMALL TORNADOES AS WELL. TREES...POWER LINES...AND POORLY
CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS WILL BE MOST AT RISK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS.

HEAVY RAINS TODAY MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW
LYING AREAS. SMALL STREAMS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED BANK FULL.

WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 7
FEET THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDES. FISHERMEN AND OTHER SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MAY
WANT TO POSTPONE TRIPS UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

A RIP CURRENT IS A 10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN PULL
EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER INTO DEEPER WATER.

TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES
AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED BEACHES AND
NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE SURF MUCH
ABOVE YOUR KNEES.

IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE RIP
CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ANOTHER METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO LET THE
RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS...WHERE THE FORCE
WEAKENS. THEN...SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM THE
CURRENT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

JILLSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
212 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

FLZ042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-272300-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
212 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 41 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME CONTAINING TORRENTIAL
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...CONTINUE TO AFFECT WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA BETWEEN SARASOTA AND POLK COUNTY...INCLUDING MUCH OF
MANATEE AND POLK COUNTIES.

THOUGH STORMS HAVE REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS WELL AS ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALONG THE LINE THROUGH AT LEAST 330 PM.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.

FARTHER NORTH...MORE FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR AND SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD ALLOW ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH AT
LEAST 330 PM. THIS AREA INCLUDES MOST OF THE NATURE COAST AND SUMTER
COUNTY.

RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO
THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFETY SHOULD TORNADO OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVATED.  AMATEUR RADIO STATION
WX4TBW CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
451 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

FLZ042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-272248-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
451 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 41 IS CANCELLED FOR WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...AND THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
HAS PERSISTED ACROSS AREAS FROM SARASOTA AND MANATEE COUNTY NORTHEAST
TO POLK COUNTY HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE 3 PM.

SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST 15000
FEET...WHICH MAKES TORNADOES UNLIKELY.  HOWEVER...WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE ARE AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...WHICH COULD TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE
IN ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
456 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

FLZ050>052-055>057-060>062-065-280000-
CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-
POLK-SARASOTA-
456 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

...GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH IN SPOTS THROUGH SUNSET...

INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF
FLORIDAS GULF COAST IS PRODUCING STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN FELT GENERALLY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...IN
AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE MID 70S OR HIGHER SOON AFTER
NOON TODAY.

SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN MANY AREAS.  HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE WINDS GUST IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH.  THESE WINDS WILL
CAUSE LOOSE ITEMS TO BLOW AROUND...AS WELL AS KNOCK DOWN TWIGS AND
SMALL LIMBS.  MINOR DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE TO UNFASTENED LIGHTWEIGHT
STRUCTURES.

RESIDENTS MAY WANT TO MOVE LOOSE...LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS AND LAWN FURNITURE INDOORS IF THEY HAVENT ALREADY DONE
SO.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

BSG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
631 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

FLZ039-042-048-049-280100-
CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-
631 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2005

...GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH IN SPOTS ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST...

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA IS
PRODUCING STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST. REPORTS FROM OCALA AT 615 PM HAD SUSTAINED WINDS OF 36 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 51 MPH. OTHER AREAS WERE GENERALLY REPORTING SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE LOOSE ITEMS TO BLOW AROUND...AS
WELL AS KNOCK DOWN TWIGS AND SMALL LIMBS. MINOR DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE TO
UNFASTENED LIGHTWEIGHT STRUCTURES.

RESIDENTS MAY WANT TO MOVE LOOSE...LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS AND LAWN FURNITURE INDOORS IF THEY HAVENT ALREADY DONE
SO.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

RJS