Storm Surge in Florida, August 28 to 29, 2005

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
930 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST LANDFALL AROUND NOON ON MONDAY. AS KATRINA HAS
INTENSIFIED ITS CIRCULATION HAS GROWN LARGER.  KATRINA REMAINS THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCE IN OUR FORECAST. KTBW 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS 2.22
PWAT AND 3782 J/KG CAPE AND WIND SE 30 KT AT 3000 FT.  TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON
TSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS COVERING THE
FA...WITH THIS CONVECTION AGAIN MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST IN
THE DEEP LAYERED SELY TO SLY WIND FLOW DRIVEN BY THE CIRCULATION OF
KATRINA.  TODAY...AFTERNOON HEATING AND CONVECTION WILL ASSIST IN
MIXING DOWN GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH AS THE STRONG AMBIENT FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA GETS TRANSPORTED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...POWERFUL HURRICANE KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WINDS
AND SEAS WELL WITHIN SMALL CRAFT RANGE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT
CURRENT SELY WIND FLOW WILL VEER INTO THE SOUTH EARLY TOMORROW THEN
BECOME SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
HELP TO INCREASE TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST WITH LEVELS OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL DEVELOPING FROM LEE COUNTY NORTH TO PASCO COUNTY
BY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY FROM HERNANDO COUNTY AND CITRUS COUNTY
WITH AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AROUND CEDAR KEY AND SOUTH
FACING BEACHES OF LEVY COUNTY. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
TODAY.  IN ADDITION...LARGE SWELLS WILL GENERATE LARGE BREAKING WAVE
ACTION AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SUBSIDE BY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
KATRINA MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN OVER THE WATERS IN ITS
WAKE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM
  INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.
 HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 12 NOON TODAY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY
  FOR THE COASTLINES OF LEVY...CITRUS...HERNANDO...AND BEACHES
  OF PASCO...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...SARASOTA...
  CHARLOTTE...AND LEE COUNTIES.

&&

SB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
506 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-281500-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER-
506 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

POWERFUL HURRICANE KATRINA IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST OVER EAST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST EARLY ON MONDAY.

AS KATRINA MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY THE
COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST WILL REMAIN QUITE
HAZARDOUS WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOTS
RANGE AND SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20NM. MARINERS
SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL HURRICANE KATRINA MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS INCREASING WAVE ACTION WILL
CAUSE ROUGH SURF AND LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION AND AN INCREASED
THREAT OF RIP CURRENT ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. IF YOU PLAN TO VISIT
THE BEACH TODAY HEED THE ADVISE OF THE BEACH PATROL

OVER THE LAND AREA ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY
TIME WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TODAY...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35
MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
PLANNING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR LOCATIONS...MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM
THE STORMS WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

MCMICHAEL