Flash Flooding and Hail in Colorado, June 3, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
255 PM MDT FRI JUN 3 2005

.SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE COLORADO WESTERN SLOPE IS
FIRING OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON.  AT THE  SAME TIME...CIRRUS CLOUD COVER OVER THE PLAINS
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER AND ALLOWED THE AIRMASS TO BE MORE
STABLE.  AS THE SHORT WAVE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOWING DOWN THIS EVENING WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER
FLOW PATTERN REMAINING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.  THE SETUP APPEARS
TO BE IN PLACE FOR SOME STORMS TO HAVE A SLOW MOTION THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN ADDITION TO SOME LARGE HAIL.

BY TOMORROW MORNING...THE UPPER LOW IS STILL OVER CENTRAL COLORADO
WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE STILL OVER THE NORTHEAST.  THIS SHOULD KEEP
LIKELY POPS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF.  TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...SO SNOW LEVELS IN THE
MOUNTAINS COULD DROP BELOW 9000 FEET WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS ABOVE
TIMBERLINE.  THE COLD AIR LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AT
BEST.

.LONG TERM...PCPN SHUD RPDLY COME TO AN END AS STG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WAVE DVLPS ALG THE MTNS AND FNT RANGE.  SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY WL
PRBLY HANG ON ACRS THE FAR ERN PLAINS SAT EVENING WITH CLRG AFT
MIDNIGHT.  THIS SHOULD BE AN END TO THE PCPN FOR A FEW DAYS AS A
SHORT WAVE RDG BLDS ACRS THE AREAS.  ALL MDLS POINT TO SIGNIFICANT
DRYING ALF WITH MORE STBL CONDITIONS.  WL RMV POPS SUNDAY.  TEMPS WL
REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME SUN AND TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT BACK INTO THE
MID 70S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER DEEP TROF WL MOVE
INTO THE PAC NW.  UPSTREAM RDG WL BLD ACRS THE AREA WITH PERSISTANT
SWLY FLOW ALF.  JET WL BE INVOF THE HIGH COUNTRY AND IF WE GET THE
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE FNT RANGE SUGGESTED BY THE MDLS...WELL GET
SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  FLOW WL
RELAX BY MIDWEEK.  FIRST OF THE NEXT SET OF DISTURBANCES MAY MAKE IT
BACK INTO THE AREA THURS OR FRIDAY.  THIS IS ABOUT THE SAME SCENARIO
WE HAVE RIGHT NOW...SO A RETURN TO COOLER AND STORMY WX MAY RETURN
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.BOU...NONE.

&&

KDRBY/046

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1124 AM MDT FRI JUN 03 2005

COZ030>051-041200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1124 AM MDT FRI JUN 03 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS THE PLAINS AGAIN TODAY.  A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS HIGHEST ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...INCLUDING
ELBERT...LINCOLN...AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER.  THE TORNADIC
THREAT HAS DIMINISHED TODAY DUE TO A WEAKENING OF THE WINDS ALOFT.
IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF HAIL FROM THUNDERSTORMS...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT
WILL BRING WINTER WEATHER TO THE MOUNTAINS.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
9000 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY.  SOME STORM
ACTIVITY WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE QUITE UNSTABLE ALOFT.  BUT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS DUE TO COOLER AIR AT THE
SURFACE.  AFTER SATURDAY...A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
RESULTING IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY AFTER 2 PM TODAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

DANKERS/046