Flash Flooding and Hail in Kansas, June 3, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
250 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...

CONCERNS REMAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO FAR NW CWA AHEAD OF
MCS/SQUALL LINE ACROSS CTRL NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. STRONGER
INSTABILITY IS SOUTH AND WEST...AND IT APPEARS ATTM THAT STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE SE AND INTENSIFY ALONG NW TO SE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. ETA 12 ADVERTISED A NORTH/SOUTH SPLIT...AND LOOKS LIKE
THIS MAY STILL HAPPEN AS FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS
INDICATE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LINE...AND
SOUTHERN SIDE SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA. EXPECT LEADING EDGE TO
BE NEAR THE SHAWNEE COUNTY LINE AROUND 5-6 AM...AND SPREAD TO THE MO
STATE LINE BY ABOUT 10AM. INITIAL FORWARD MOTION OF THE LINE IS NEAR
40 MPH. NOT GETTING MANY SEVERE REPORTS OUT OF THE LINE YET...BUT
WILL MONITOR FOR WIND THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

LATER TODAY...UPPER WAVE IN SW US EJECTS TOWARDS THE STATE...AND
SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS LIFT SPREADS OVER THE AREA. 0-6KM SHEAR STILL 25-30 KTS
DESPITE BACKING OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS...AND CAPES STILL 1-2K J/KG.
ATMOSPHERE MAY BE A BIT WORKED OVER FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS...BUT
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE AND WHEN STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ENOUGH
FOR CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MORNING MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LIKELY FAR
SOUTHEAST. WILL THEN KEEP 40-50 POPS FOR AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED
STORMS CONTINUE. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE A PROBLEM TODAY AS FFG
VALUES HAVE DECREASED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY.

NEXT S/W PROGGED OVER CO EARLY SATURDAY TO MOVE INTO KANSAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THIS ONE...AS MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND EVEN BREAKS OUT A BIT OF
SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. WAVE AND FRONT THEN MOVE INTO THE CWA NEAR PEAK HEATING
INTO CAPES 1-3K J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR 35-45 KTS. IF TIMING PLAYS OUT
THIS WAY...WOULD EXPECT SEVERE STORMS THIS DAY. DID STRETCH SCT POPS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CURRENT EARLY SUNDAY POPS ARE 20...AND MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
DEPENDING ON SPEED OF DEPARTING WAVE. BUT HAVE LEFT FOR NOW.
BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA AS WESTERLY FLOW MOVES IN
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. FOR
MONDAY...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS TO THE AREA AS WESTERN
TROF MOVES ONSHORE. NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
416 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-040915-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
416 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...UP TO AN
INCH PER HOUR IN SOME LOCATIONS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...A
FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP  (ALL LOWER CASE)