Hail in Colorado, June 21, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
245 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2005

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION GOT AN EARLIER START OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY WHILE STRONG BOUNDARY HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY WESTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN CO. BOUNDARY HAS KIND OF STALLED ON THE NRN FRINGE OVER THE
DENVER AREA WHILE STILL MAKING A BIT OF PROGRESS WESTWARD ACROSS
ELBERT AND EL PASO COUNTIES. AIRMASS IS REPRIMED AS DEWPOINTS
HAVE CLIMBED BACK INTO THE MID 50S OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND LOWER TO
MID 60S OVER THE PLAINS. LATEST ACARS SOUNDING SHOWING CAPES FROM
1500-2000J/KG WITH THE CIN ALMOST DISSOLVED. CAPES UP TO OVER 3000
JULES OVER THE NERN PLAINS. FROM PROGRESSION OF
BOUNDARIES...STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS THRU THIS EVENING. THIS AREA WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR FLOODING AS THESE AREAS GOT HIT
FAIRLY HARD THE LAST FEW DAYS. FURTHER NORTH...AIRMASS DOENT LOOK
AS IMPRESSIVE. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT STILL
MAY SEE SOME MARGINAL HAIL UP TO AN INCH WITH THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES.  PROFILERS/VAD WINDS SHOWING VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT SO AGAIN
SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR.
IPW VALUES RANGING FROM THREE QUARTERS TO ABOUT AN INCH.

FARTHER EAST OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THINGS HAVE STABILIZED MORE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED BACK INTO THE
MID 60S WITH STRONGER SLY FLOW. ANOTHER COMPLEX ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS IS SENDING ANOTHER BOUNDARY JUST COMING INTO NEBRASKA AND THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS DOWN INTO THE FAR NERN CORNER AFTER 00Z TNT.
SO WILL ADD SOME POPS OUT THERE AS WELL.

DONT REALLY SEE A LOT OF CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY AS CWA SHOULD STILL BE
UNDER THE PLUME OF MSTR ROTATING AROUND THE BIG UPPER HIGH. TEMPS
OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE AROUND 90. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE MTNS...ADJ PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM....LATEST MODEL RUNS LOOK EVEN WETTER NOW DURING LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. HOT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE WEST COAST
LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DURING THE PERIOD...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FCST TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE STREAM OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE TAKES A RIGHT HAND TURN ACROSS NRN COLORADO
WITH PASSAGE OF EACH SHORTWAVE. QC OMEGA FIELDS SHOW ONLY WEAK
ASCENT BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ON THURSDAY BUT STEEP SFC-500MB
LAPSE RATES AND LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORMS IN THE MTNS AND NEARBY I-25 URBAN
CORRIDOR...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER OUT ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS.
VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL FAVOR LESS
HAIL AND MORE RAINFALL AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. ON FRIDAY...A
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH NERN COLORADO DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODELS SHOW E-SELY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THE DAY AND A RISE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WITH THE SFC-700MB THETA-E RIDGE PUSHING UP AGAINST THE FRONT
RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. QPF FIELDS INDICATE 6-HOUR PRECIP AMTS
UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH ACROSS NERN COLORADO WITH HIGHER AMTS IN AND
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...CENTERED AROUND 00Z/FRIDAY. MTN
AREAS SHOULD ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING QG ASCENT WITH PASSAGE OF A RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. WILL ELEVATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN ALL AREAS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS WELL AS LOWER TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES
EACH DAY TO ACCOUNT IN PART FOR THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. SHOULD
SEE DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A SLOW GRADUAL
DRY-UP AND WARMING DURING THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING WARM SWLY FLOW
ALOFT AND OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. HOWEVER STILL SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY
AROUND TO SPAWN SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING T-STORMS IN ALL AREAS ON
SATURDAY...ISOLATED STORMS IN THE MTNS AND URBAN CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN MTN AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.BOU...NONE.

&&

SWE/BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
200 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2005

COZ030>051-221200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
200 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST OF
A LINE FROM COPE TO NEW RAYMER...AND EXPAND TO COVER THE
MOUNTAINS...FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE REGION BY
AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS FOR THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN...HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH. LIKE YESTERDAY...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND MAY PRODUCE
RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. THIS MAY RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING CONDITIONS.

A STRONG BOUNDARY IS PUSHING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WHICH IS INITIATING STORM DEVELOPMENT ALREADY
ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS INCREASING AGAIN ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.

THE SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS WEAK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY...BUT
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL STILL RESULT IN THE STRONGER STORMS
PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. THE TORNADO
THREAT IS MINIMAL TODAY...BUT A WEAK TORNADO OR FUNNEL CLOUD CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT AS THE STRONG BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED SOMEWHAT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS...SO ISOLATED STORMS MAY NOT REDEVELOP UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE...THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT EARLY ON FRIDAY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STORMS
PRODUCING HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING.
HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS WILL BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

ENTREKIN/BAKER