Damaging Winds in Washington, June 21, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
540 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2005

.SYNOPSIS...THE LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE...MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD BLOWING DUST TO THE PALOUSE AND
BASIN ZONES. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRIFTING NORTH AND
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE RAIN.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. WAVE HAS AN ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
MOVING INTO OREGON CURRENTLY. THIS JET IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH ALSO SOME EXCELLENT DIFLUENCE ALOFT. CURRENT MODEL
SOUNDING FOR OUR AREA HAVE US CAPPED WITH ABOUT 60 TO 100 J/KG
PREVENTING ANY PREMATURE CONVECTION BEFORE THE WAVE LIFTS THIS LID
AND FIRES OFF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO HAVE AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH THE TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S. ALL OF THESE
INGREDIENTS POINT TO SOME STORMS HAVING HAIL AND GUSTY
STRONG WINDS WITH THE OUTFLOW. CONVECTION WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST
WITH THE WAVE LATER ON BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MARCH ACROSS THE DISTRICT BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z
BRINGING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WE WILL
REMAIN IN THE TROF AFTER THE WAVE MOVES INTO MONTANA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...KEEPING US SHOWERY AND COOL INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOWS A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RESOLVED LONGWAVE TROF OVER THIS
PERIOD WITH AN AXIS CENTERED OVER THE WASHINGTON COAST EXTENDING
UPWARD THRU BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN HOW THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC OPENS UP WHAT IS LEFT OF A STALLED
OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW/TROF AND PUTS IT IN PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OVER THE WEEKEND. ONE WOULD EXPECT SHORTWAVES TO BE BETTER
RESOLVED AND MORE ENHANCED TRAVELING THROUGH A LONGWAVE TROF OUR OUR
REGION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST CALLING FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THRU THIS PERIOD AND
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSHING ACROSS ERN WA AND N IDAHO THIS
EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS
40-45 MPH WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO WESTERLY WITH STRONG GUSTS AT TIMES TO 35 MPH. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. RFOX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE        58  77  49  78  48  81 /  30  20  20  10  10  10
COEUR DALENE  57  77  48  78  47  81 /  30  20  20  20  10  20
PULLMAN        54  76  45  74  44  78 /  30  20  20  10  10  10
LEWISTON       61  83  53  83  52  87 /  30  20  20  20  10  10
COLVILLE       53  78  45  79  45  84 /  30  20  20  30  10  20
SANDPOINT      55  77  47  78  46  81 /  30  20  20  30  10  20
KELLOGG        56  77  48  79  46  84 /  30  20  20  30  10  20
MOSES LAKE     62  82  51  82  50  86 /  30  20  10  10   0  10
WENATCHEE      64  79  54  82  54  84 /  30  20  20  10   0  10
OMAK           61  79  48  83  49  87 /  30  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
928 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2005

IDZ001>004-026-027-WAZ031>038-041>044-221330-
NORTHERN PANHANDLE-COEUR DALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-LEWISTON AREA-
LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS-
LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-WASHINGTON PALOUSE-
MOSES LAKE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-SPOKANE AREA-
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-WENATCHEE AREA-
EAST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES-OKANOGAN VALLEY-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-
928 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE AREAS LISTED ABOVE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE INLAND NORTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL RISK OF HAIL
AS LARGE AS ONE INCH.

IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. AROUND 4 PM...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25
MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND NEAR WENATCHEE. THESE WINDS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND INTO THE
SPOKANE AREA AND PALOUSE EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.