Winter Storm in California, March 18 to 20, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
300 PM PST FRI MAR 18 2005

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC HAS ESSENTIALLY SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES...
WITH ONE PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO NORTHERN CA AND THE OTHER
IMPULSE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CA. RADAR LOOPS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP FALLING IN THESE PARTICULAR AREAS ALL DAY.
THIS HAS LEFT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR IN A VOID TODAY WITH
RELATIVELY LITTLE...IF ANY...MEASUREABLE PRECIP. DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS...HOWEVER...MORE DYNAMICS WILL BE WORKING INTO THE OVERALL
PATTERN. A BIG INFLUENCE ON OUR PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE
PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG MID LATITUDE JET CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE PACIFIC AROUND 35N. THE MODELS FORECAST THIS 120+ KT JET
TO CONTINUE NOSING ITS WAY EASTWARD...REACHING THE CENTRAL CA
COAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. IN THE PROCESS...MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
INCREASE OVER THE CWA...ESP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST SAT EVENING. DURING THIS TIME...
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP IS LIKELY TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR. BASED ON THE LATEST QPF FROM THE CNRFC AND HPC...THERE
WAS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT TO UPGRADE WINTER STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS
FOR THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN SPITE
OF WEAKER OROGRAPHICS...IT WAS FELT THAT QPF WOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO WARRANT AT LEAST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE KERN COUNTY
MTNS FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  OF COURSE...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
JET NOSING ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL CA BY SATURDAY...STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE A BIG CONCERN.

IN THE SJ VLY...WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST THRU SATURDAY
AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE NORTH VALLEY BY AFTN. AND WITH ADDED LIFT
FORECAST OVER THE CWA...THERE WAS CONCERN FOR ISOLD PM TSTMS.
ACTUALLY...THIS AGREES WITH THE LATEST FORECAST FROM SPC WHICH PUTS
THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FTHLS IN A GENERAL TSTM RISK SAT. ACCORDING
TO THE WS-ETA...CAPE VALUES APPROACH 550 JOULES/KG ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF THE SJ VLY BY 00Z SUN. THIS PARTICULAR MODEL PINPOINTS A
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS MERCED COUNTY AND FORECASTS THIS CONVERGENCE LINE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN TULARE CO BY LATE AFTN.  WHATEVER THE
CASE...ISOLD TSTMS WERE ADDED TO THE SJ VLY/FTHLS ZONES FOR SAT PM.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS MONDAY...THE MODELS
FORECAST A STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL CA.
THIS IS THE KIND OF PATTERN THAT MAKES IT ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO
TIME ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAKS FROM WET WEATHER...EVEN THOUGH THEY
WILL OCCUR.  HOWEVER...THE 18Z MODELS SUGGEST THAT A BREAK WILL COME
SUN AFTN/NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FAST WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL CA BY MONDAY AFTN WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WEATHER FOR
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND UNCERTAIN AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS REMAIN INCONCLUSIVE ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO NEAR THE AREA AROUND
MIDWEEK. THE FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINS RATHER BROAD
BRUSHED THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL
BE BIASED TOWARD THE LATEST GFS...WHICH CONTINUES ITS RECENT TREND
OF SLOWING THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. GENERALLY LOW-END CHANCE
POPS ARE INDICATED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXCEPT JUST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TUESDAY WHERE THE GFS INDICATES SOME SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. FRIDAY MAY SEE LOWER
CHANCES ALSO...AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT
             FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE PARK TO THE
             KERN COUNTY LINE FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM
             PST SUNDAY.
          ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE KERN COUNTY
             MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...FROM 10
             PM PST THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY...

&&

DURFEE/JEB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 PM PST FRI MAR 18 2005

CAZ089>094-098-099-191300-
EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
300 PM PST FRI MAR 18 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY...
AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

CAZ096-097-191300-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
300 PM PST FRI MAR 18 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON...AND THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
UNTIL 6 AM PST SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER
MESSAGE /WWUS46 KHNX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM PST SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

CAZ095-191300-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
300 PM PST FRI MAR 18 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...
INCLUDING THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL
6 PM PST SATURDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER
MESSAGE /WWUS46 KHNX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

PJ