Damaging Wind in California, July 30, 2005

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
857 AM PDT SAT JUL 30 2005

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
KEEP A DECENT AMOUNT OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON...AND KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...MORNING ANALYSIS REVEALS VERY JUICY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
/ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA/ BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE A LITTLE
LATER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BUT IT WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO STOP
IT ENTIRELY. AGREE WITH MID SHIFT ASSESSMENT THAT SLOW MOVING STORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...BUT
LACK OF A MESOSCALE FOCUSING MECHANISM SUGGESTS NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
305 AM PDT SAT JUL 30 2005

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT ENDED OVER THE REGION AT THIS
TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND LA
PAZ COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA WHERE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
ARE ON THE DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MOHAVE AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES. SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY THE
MODELS FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR MID DAY AS DAYTIME HEATING QUICKLY DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE.
NOT REALLY FINDING ANY FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TODAY.
HOWEVER RICH MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER TO
MID ATMOSPHERE POINTS TO HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING TODAY...SO WILL DEFER
THIS DECISION TO THE DAY CREW. SIMILAR SITUATION FOR SUNDAY. MONDAY
COULD BE ANOTHER STORY AS THE GFS BRINGS AN INVERTED TROUGH INTO THE
AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF THIS ACTUALLY DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH
UPPER HIGH ROUGHLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE HIGH MAY DRIFT A BIT CLOSER TO US BY FRIDAY IF THE GFS
VERIFIES BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON EXPECTED WEATHER.
CONTINUING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH THE AIRMASS REMAINING SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE. ALSO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES TRENDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...TAF ADEQUATELY COVERS ALL EXPECTED WEATHER AT KLAS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL
TRAFFIC CORRIDORS AND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. ERRATIC AND GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE.
.AZ...NONE.
.CA...NONE.
&&

MORGAN/SALMEN/HARRISON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1139 AM PDT SAT JUL 30 2005

AZZ001>003-036-CAZ026>029-NVZ014>022-311838-
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK CA-ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY NV-
LAKE HAVASU AND FORT MOHAVE AZ-LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA AZ-
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA NV-LAS VEGAS VALLEY NV-
LINCOLN COUNTY NV-NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY NV-NORTHWEST DESERTS AZ-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AZ-
OWENS VALLEY AND ADJACENT EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES CA-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY DESERTS CA-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY-
UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-SHEEP RANGE NV-
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY NV-SPRING MOUNTAINS-RED ROCK CANYON NV-
WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY NV-
1139 AM PDT SAT JUL 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...SATURDAY.

THE MONSOON PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
BARSTOW CALIFORNIA TO CALIENTE NEVADA. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

MORGAN